Happy Saturday!
MLB must bet props are here! We’re keeping things light and healthy. While college football is in full swing, our dedication to America’s pastime remains strong. We finish what we start. I’ve found some intriguing first-five team totals with compelling stats. Let’s dive in!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up 0-2.
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+115)
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Mets star Francisco Lindor celebrates double
The Stank:
Let’s get straight to the point: the Mets have nine elite-rated hitters today according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings over the last three seasons. They also have the highest average hitter matchup ratings, both in default and current season metrics. In the default ratings, they lead in matchup wOBA and ISO for the day.
Feel like we just posted a three-run homer? pic.twitter.com/Z6kOLzVl51
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 14, 2024
They’re facing Phillies starter Kolby Allard, who has the worst pitcher rating on the slate and allows the highest hard contact rate at 46%. Although Allard hasn’t given up more than 2.5 runs since his first start of the season against the Guardians, he’s notorious for yielding hard contact, which means runners on base.
I use Batters-Box.com daily, and I’ve rarely seen a team with nine elite-rated hitters. It will be interesting to see how well the Mets perform. I trust the data and the Mets’ track record in the first five innings, so this should be a compelling play.
Guardians F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
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The Stank:
Like the Mets, the Cleveland Guardians also have a strong lineup today as they face the Tampa Bay Rays. The Guardians will be up against Tyler Alexander, who typically has an opener pitch before he enters the game. This means we’re losing valuable at-bats and outs waiting for Alexander to take the mound. Nonetheless, the Guardians have four elite-rated hitters in both the default and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com.
Alexander is coming off one of his best performances this season, allowing just one hit and one run in 4.1 innings against the Phillies. However, before that, he allowed over 2.5 runs in four consecutive starts. This season, he’s given up more than 2.5 runs in 11 of his 20 starts, posting a 5.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Once he’s on the mound, the Guardians should be poised to take advantage.
Cleveland has been exceptional at home, averaging 2.93 runs in the first five innings. The new additions to Progressive Field have greatly benefited left-handed batters. After a challenging outing in their last game, the Guardians are likely to bounce back strongly against the Rays’ weaker pitching. At plus money, this is a must-bet prop in my book.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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