Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/26)

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One of the MLB‘s biggest rivalries takes centerstage on Friday when the New York Yankees (60-44) and Boston Red Sox (54-47) begin a three-game series at Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Not only is the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry always exciting to watch, but tonight’s contest is also ripe with MLB betting opportunities. Want to know where to start? Let’s get into my predictions and best bets for the upcoming affair.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 61-73-1 (45.6%)

MLB Betting Today: Yankees vs Red Sox (7/26)

Yankees vs Red Sox Game Information

Matchup: New York Yankees (60-44, 33-21 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (54-47, 24-25 Home)
Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
Date: Friday, July 26, 2024
Game Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB.TV, Fubo, ESPN+, NESN

Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Probable Pitchers

Yankees: Nestor Cortes (21 starts — 4-9, 3.99 ERA)
Red Sox: Brayan Bello (18 starts — 10-5, 5.27 ERA)

Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Odds & Spread

Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, July 26 at 9:36 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Yankees vs Red Sox Run Line

New York Yankees -1.5 (+145)
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-165)

Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under

Over 9.5 Runs (-119)
Under 9.5 Runs (-101)

Yankees vs Red Sox Moneyline

New York Yankees (-113)
Boston Red Sox (+103)

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Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends

The Yankees are 2-5 straight up in their last seven games.
Boston is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 games vs. the AL East.
The total hit the Over in 10 of the Yankees’ last 14 games.
The total hit the Over in four of Boston’s last five games.
The total hit the Over in three of the last five Yankees-Red Sox matchups.

Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/26)

AL East bragging rights are on the line when these two foes collide tonight. As both sides look to chase the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, the Yankees currently own the American League’s No. 1 wild-card spot while the Red Sox are one game out of a postseason position.

Nevertheless, these rivals have already clashed six times this season. The Red Sox have taken the early advantage thus far, winning four of those encounters — including a pair of victories at Yankee Stadium exactly three weeks ago. In fact, Boston is now 13-6 SU in its last 19 matchups with New York, firmly establishing which way this rivalry is leaning.

But regardless of how recent encounters between these clubs looked, they’re both desperate for victory tonight. After all, the Yankees are only 1-4 SU while being outscored 31-19 in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have dropped five of six outings since the MLB All-Star Break ended and just fell 20-7 to the Colorado Rockies two nights ago.

Will the Red Sox’s post-All-Star struggles continue tonight?

But even if the results haven’t been there lately, the Red Sox are still 13-11 SU in AL East matchups this season, whereas the Yankees are just 18-21 SU in that regard.

At the end of the day, this game could come down to which starting pitcher makes the first mistake. After a stellar start to the 2024 campaign, Yankees RHP Nestor Cortes is trending in the wrong direction, pitching to a 6.23 ERA while going 0-4 in his last five starts. Although he’s yet to lose to Boston in 11 career matchups (5 starts), the 29-year-old veteran owns a 7.58 ERA across 19 innings at Fenway Park.

The good news for the Yankees is that Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello hasn’t been much better. Although his start to the year was also encouraging, Bello owns a 6.33 ERA while opposing batters are slashing .304/.373/.477 in his last 12 starts. While he won six of those outings, that clearly had more to do with Boston’s talented bats rather than his own performance.

Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello has plenty of room for improvement judging by his latest appearances.

While neither team is an attractive pick at the moment, I’m going with the Red Sox today. The Yankees just can’t win whenever Cortes plays on the road and his lack of success at Fenway Park speaks for itself. Having the home-field advantage should help out a Boston squad that’s hungry to send the crowd home happy.

With that in mind, backing the Over on the 9.5-run total is a no-brainer. Not only is the Over 4-1 in each side’s last five outings, but Cortes’ last four starts saw an average of 9.8 runs scored while Bello’s six previous outings featured a 12.5-run average.

After New York and Boston averaged a combined 11.0 runs in their first three Fenway Park tilts this season, all signs point to more fireworks this evening.

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Prediction: BOS wins

Best Yankees vs. Red Sox Bet: o9.5 Total Runs (-119)

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Best Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Player Prop (7/26)

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Nestor Cortes o2.5 earned runs (-145) is one of the best Yankees vs. Red Sox player props tonight.

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Cortes tends to allow the Over on this prop more often than not, finishing 12 of his first 21 starts with more than 2.5 earned runs (57.1%) with four of those instances coming in his last five outings. He’s also finished with the Over in eight of his 10 road games thus far, pitching to a putrid 6.04 ERA along the way.

As he’s shown he has issues playing at Fenway Park, don’t expect anything special from Cortes tonight.