Forecasting NFL free agency is a rugged, sometimes fruitless task. With 32 clubs headed in 32 directions, pegging the right player fit to the proper coaching scheme at the appropriate price becomes a crapshoot. Nevertheless, the prognosticating must continue. With that in mind …
Let’s look at some players entering the market whom I’d want to ink for value and others whose contracts could wind up aging less graciously from a team perspective.
Players who could be underpriced
Fresh off a season that saw him post a career-high 10 sacks, Huff’s raw pass-rush numbers portend a massive contract. Check out any per-snap figure on Next Gen Stats, and Huff’s name is usually near the top, alongside the likes of Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. Maybe he gets big bucks, but seeing how he entered the league as an undrafted free agent, pre-draft evaluations could put a ceiling on his offers. With questions about whether he can be an every-down player, Huff could wind up in a tier below the highly paid edge rushers. In that scenario, where Huff takes a shorter or incentive-laden deal, he could wind up being underpaid if he proves those doubts superfluous.
Luvu popped off the screen over the past two seasons in Carolina, raging to the pigskin with violent intentions. I’d enjoy watching a compilation of his massive hits, blasts for loss and QB takedowns set to death metal music. Luvu proved he could be an every-down defender, able to clean up against the run and get after the quarterback. Those players tend to get paid, but once again, we’re talking about a former undrafted free agent — and one whose original team (Jets) let him walk after three seasons. Luvu has earned a payday, but he’s working against history.
The 31-year-old signal-caller continues to prove he can lead an offense and splash in big plays when needed. It’s a shame that the Jimmy Garoppolos of the world have gotten multiple chances in recent years, yet Brissett is left to babysit for young quarterbacks. Last season, each time he entered the lineup in Washington, the offense that couldn’t find big plays suddenly turned entertaining. Brissett deserves a shot at a starting gig. Alas, he’ll probably have to settle for a one-year QB2 contract once again. Given how many backups played last year, a smart club would be wise to invest in a reliable general like Jacoby.
When talking about finding value in free agency, players like this one leap to mind. A backup in Dallas, Armstrong showed he doesn’t need a massive amount of reps to be productive, earning 16 total sacks over the past two seasons despite playing a combined 566 pass-rush snaps, per NGS. Armstrong’s length is a problem for offensive linemen, and his versatility is an asset for defenses. Turning 27 this summer, Armstrong has improved in each of his six seasons since entering the league as a fourth-round pick. Those are the types of players who should get an extra look in free agency.
Corners nearing 30 can often be undervalued in free agency as clubs are wary of a coming cliff. However, Moore — who turns 29 in August — remains one of the top nickel corners in the game as a willing tackler from the slot who also possesses excellent ball skills. During the season, coaches often talk about the nickel role as vital to the defense, someone they consider a third starter. Come the offseason, though, front offices play a different game, rarely giving nickels big-money deals. That factor could cap Moore’s market and make him a steal for the right club.
Given the dearth of high-end wide receivers hitting free agency, we could see a few eye-popping numbers tossed around at the top of the market. However, things could fall off as clubs decide to wait for a deep draft at the position. Boyd could slide into the void as a big-slot veteran. Coming off a down season in Cincy, the 29-year-old’s market figures to be suppressed. In the right scheme, he could be a great buy-low option for a team seeking slot production.
Chinn appeared on the star path early in his career, but a string of injuries and an ill fit in Carolina’s defense under Ejiro Evero knocked the safety off that track. A better fit as a box safety who plays like a linebacker, Chinn won’t be for every coordinator. Yet, with a nose for the football and playmaking ability, there is high-upside talent. The 26-year-old might have fallen off the past couple of years, but I’m betting he didn’t flat-out forget how to play. Chinn could thrive in a scheme that puts him closer to the line of scrimmage and allows him to use his instincts to make plays. He profiles as a guy who could ink a one-year, prove-it deal and hit the market again next year, having revived interest.
Players who could be overpriced
Mayfield enjoyed a sensational season in Tampa after inking a prove-it deal last offseason. The former No. 1 overall pick saw the field much better under OC Dave Canales, exhibiting improved decision-making. From the player’s perspective, he deserves every penny he can squeeze out of the market. He’s earned it. However, from a team view, how much is too much for a quarterback who’s ridden the roller-coaster throughout his career? I’d be thrilled if I could get Mayfield on a Geno Smith-type deal. That seems unlikely. But things get a little dicey if we’re talking about the Daniel Jones $40 million-per territory. Perhaps he returns to Tampa on a bit of a discount, and this all becomes moot, but if Mayfield hits the open market and a bidding war ensues, the price could skyrocket.
With Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. off the board, Brown joins Calvin Ridley atop the shallow receiver market. That’s a good place to be to find a big contract. Brown is a burner, but he’s never profiled as a true No. 1 target. In five seasons with the Cardinals and Ravens, he has logged one 1,000-yard campaign and is coming off a career-low 574 yards in 14 games in 2023. As we saw a few years ago with Christian Kirk, 1,000-yard seasons aren’t a prerequisite to getting paid on the open market. In a league constantly scouring for speed, it will just take one club to view Brown as the perfect puzzle piece and make him a massive offer.
Did Queen, who just made his first Pro Bowl, mature into a better player? Or did the scheme — and playing next to Roquan Smith — simply put him in a premium position to break out? That’s the issue front offices in the linebacker market must parse out. If Queen joins former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald on the LB-needy Seahawks, I’ll be more confident in his upward trajectory continuing. Barring that, however, consider me skeptical. Queen can be an athletic playmaker, but I’d rather roll with a cheaper FA option like Drue Tranquill or Azeez Al-Shaair if I’m in the market for an off-ball linebacker.
This is nothing personal against Henry, who is a one-of-a-kind back with the potential to turn around any backfield he joins. The concern here is the tread on the tires. Henry has led the NFL in carries during four of the past five seasons — and in the fifth season, he missed nine games due to injury, yet still piled up 219 totes. The RB has averaged 305 carries per year over that span. With “King Henry” now in his 30s, will the wear begin to show? I hope my concern is proven trivial, and he gallops through defenders for another five years. But in this market, paying big money to an aging RB who has carried a heavy load feels quite risky.
The speedster doesn’t need my help explaining his explosive ability. He did that himself on social media, laying out the big-play acumen. Given his wheels, Davis profiles as a wideout who could hit it big in free agency. The league always wants home run hitters. Yet it’s the plays between the massive gains that offer pause. Davis had five games with zero catches in 2023. Perhaps you can blame his low target-per-route scores on the Bills’ offense, but they gave him chances to be a consistent No. 2 wideout, and it never seemed to click. Can he be more than a one-trick deep threat elsewhere?
Young’s shift from the East Coast to the West didn’t work out. He generated 40 QB pressures in seven games with Washington, per Next Gen Stats, looking more like his rookie self. However, following the trade to San Francisco, he earned just 28 pressures in nine regular-season games. The underwhelming production opposite Nick Bosa, coupled with routinely giving up gains on run plays right at him, could lead to a lesser market for the former No. 2 overall pick. However, he’s still young (turning 25 in April), and players with that pedigree rarely hit the open market at that age. Pre-draft evaluations could play a significant role for certain franchises. Given the production in San Francisco, however, I’d be more comfortable paying Young on a one-year, prove-it contract.
