Happy Hump Day!
Get ready for a full day of baseball with these exciting MLB picks!
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Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
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Last night’s card went 2-5 (-3.6 units)
Team Total Prop: Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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Baltimore stars Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins low-five after scoring
The Stank:
It would not be a write-up by me if I did not give out at least one first five team total.
Today, I love the Orioles to go over 2.5 in the first five. They are going up against Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, who has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. Cabrera is posting a putrid 7.36 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP this season. He has allowed teams to exceed this number in five of his eight starts this season and has allowed at least two runs in seven of his eight starts.
He has the highest average hitter matchup hard contact with over 55%. Cabrera just lets up so much hard contact, which is why Baltimore has an abundance of elite hitters today. On Batters-Box.com, they have nine elite hitters. On top of that, the Marlins allow the most runs in the first five innings. The Orioles are in the top ten in the first five, scoring, averaging 2.81 runs per game.
This should be a huge offensive day for the Orioles, and at plus money, I would take this bet ten times out of ten.
Total Bases Prop: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+125)
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The Stank:
After a tough 0-4 performance last night, Gunnar Henderson, currently ranked number one on Batters-box.com current season ratings, is poised for redemption tonight.
The Orioles’ promising young talent boasts the top matchup rating once again. He faces Edward Cabrera, who holds the lowest pitcher rating on the slate. Cabrera’s statistics are grim with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Most of his pitches are below league average except for one that is above by two decimal points.
In his last five games, Henderson has maintained a .273 batting average and an OPS of .788, tallying ten hits with two extra-base hits. Despite a hitless outing yesterday, the favorable matchup signals a prime opportunity for Henderson to shine in Miami.
Sprinkle of the Day: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+725)
- When elite this season Henderson goes yard 27.91% of the time (43 rating sample size)
- Went 0-4 last night
- Day After Theory – I liked him yesterday – run it back
- Price – a top ten hitter to leave the yard at that price is insane
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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