Phillies vs Braves MLB Predictions, Odds, Total & Best Bets (7/5)

Today’s Phillies vs. Braves MLB predictions and best bets are brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from MLB odds to the NBA and everything in between.

The Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) will begin a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves (47-38) when the NL East rivals collide at Truist Park on Friday night.

Both teams could use a win after tasting defeat on Independence Day. The Phillies look for a bounce-back showing following a 10-2 blowout loss to the Chicago Cubs while the Braves were on the wrong side of a 4-2 meeting with the San Francisco Giants.

Does Philadelphia have what it takes to get back on track? Or will Atlanta take one step further to closing the divisional gap?

Tonight’s Phillies vs. Braves matchup is also lined with solid MLB betting options, so let’s look at some of them as we get into some predictions and picks.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-52-1 (44.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Phillies vs Braves (7/5)

Phillies vs Braves Game Information

Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (57-30, 24-16 Away) vs. Atlanta Braves (47-38, 27-16 Home)
Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Game Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
How to Watch Phillies vs. Braves: MLB.TV, Fubo, Apple TV+

Phillies vs Braves MLB Probable Pitchers

Phillies: Aaron Nola (17 starts — 9-4, 3.43 ERA)
Braves: Max Fried (16 starts — 7-3, 2.91 ERA)

Braves vs Phillies MLB Odds & Spread

Braves vs. Phillies MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, July 5 at 10:27 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Phillies vs Braves Run Line

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-177)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+157)

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under

Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

Phillies vs Braves Moneyline

Philadelphia Phillies (+125)
Atlanta Braves (-136)

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Phillies vs Braves MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 14-6 straight up in its last 20 games vs. the NL East.
Atlanta is 5-10 straight up in its last 15 games vs. the NL.
The total hit the Over in eight of Philadelphia’s last 11 road games.
The total hit the Under in seven of Atlanta’s last eight games.
The total hit the Over in five of the last six Philadelphia-Atlanta matchups.

Phillies vs Braves Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/5)

Tonight’s showdown is the first Phillies vs. Braves meeting since the NL East rivals opened the 2024 campaign against each other. Atlanta ended up getting the last laugh as it won two of the three matchups while outscoring Philadelphia 25-12 along the way.

Having said that, said series took place nearly four months ago and a lot has changed since then. The Phillies went on to become one of the MLB’s top clubs and now hold a nine-game lead over the Braves in the NL East race. Philadelphia is also now 14-8 SU (63.6%) against the division whereas Atlanta is 12-11 SU (52.2%) against its rivals.

Even though Philly is coming off a loss, Rob Thomson’s club knows how to rebound. The Phillies have only suffered back-to-back losses once since June 17 while going 9-4 SU across their last 13 games. In fact, they were even on a three-game winning streak before being stomped out by the Cubs.

Conversely, the Braves have been playing to mixed results. Although Atlanta is still one of the NL’s best teams, a 3-5 SU stretch across its last eight games has left many to feel concerned.

The Braves have struggled to string together consecutive wins over the last few weeks.

The Phillies will be starting right-handed ace Aaron Nola, who’s searching for his 10th win of the year. Nola has faced the Braves a whopping 34 times throughout his nine-year career, going 15-11 with a 3.58 ERA. Having said that, he’s only beaten them once in the last five matchups.

Meanwhile, Max Fried will look to keep up his strong play against the Phillies. The Braves lefty has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven appearances, going 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA while allowing a .216/263/.270 slash line along the way.

Still, the Phillies are 21-15 SU against southpaws this season while ranking first against lefties in hits, home runs, and walks.

Can the Phillies batters — like Nick Castellanos — solve Braves LHP Max Fried tonight?

In an NL East showdown that could go either way, I’m taking the Phillies to pull off the upset. The Braves are good, but the Phillies are playing well against left-handed pitchers and picked up a win when these rivals last met. Considering Nola’s all-time success against Atlanta, Philadelphia has what it takes to win.

But regardless of who wins, the Over on the 7.5-run total is the way to go. Not only is the Over 8-3 in the Phillies’ last 11 road games, but each of their last four outings finished with eight or more total runs. Additionally, Atlanta’s last six tilts against Philadelphia saw the Over hit five times as the rivals combined for 10.3 runs per contest.

Given that the first three Phillies-Braves tilts of the year finished with the Over, we should expect plenty of offense tonight.

Phillies vs. Braves MLB Prediction: PHI wins

Best Phillies vs. Braves Bet: o7.5 Total Runs (-115)

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Best Phillies vs Braves MLB Player Prop (7/5)

When it comes to my Phillies vs. Braves MLB player prop pick, I have my eye on Nick Castellanos o0.5 runs + RBIs (-102).

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Castellanos has been playing some of his best baseball since the middle of June. In his last 15 games, the former two-time MLB All-Star is slashing .368/.422/.597 while amassing six runs and 13 RBIs. He finished with the Over on this prop in eight of those games, including in three of the last four after hitting his 12th home run of the year yesterday.

Not convinced yet? No problem because the Over is also 5-1 in his last six games against the Braves. With four hits and an HR in eight career at-bats against Max Fried, Castellanos is in a great spot to pull through on this prop tonight.

Phillies vs Braves MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/5)