- WHERE: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
Over eight years ago, on a Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium, the Denver Broncos last defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, with Peyton Manning outperforming Alex Smith.
Since their last 15 encounters, the Chiefs have emerged victorious in all, matching the Patriots (Jets) record for the longest active winning streak against a single team. During this streak, the Chiefs have won by an average margin of over 11 points per game. However, the last three games have been decided by one score.
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been part of all of them, although the Chiefs are 11-0 against the Broncos with him at quarterback. Russell Wilson is 1-3 vs. the Chiefs, although his last win against them came as a member of the Seahawks. He was 0-2 against them last season and has never won at Arrowhead.
Last season, Wilson had three turnovers and was sacked 10 times in the two encounters, but he also had two of his standout performances against the Chiefs in 2022. He accounted for eight touchdowns and provided the Broncos with opportunities to win both games.
The Chiefs have had a challenging 4-1 start to this season but managed to secure four consecutive wins, positioning them at the top of the AFC West. On the opposite end of the division, the Broncos, with a 1-4 record, have conceded a dismal 181 points, the highest in the league. Their single victory required a 21-point comeback.
In 2023, road teams have a record of 3-2 on Thursday nights, and 2-2 in shorter weeks, indicating that the Broncos should not be ruled out, despite their recent challenging history with these teams. They will confront each other again 17 days later in Denver. However, the Chiefs are targeting their 16th consecutive series win, which begins in Week 6.
Here are four things to watch for when the Broncos visit the Chiefs on Thursday night on Prime Video:
- Keeping a close eye on Travis Kelce. The All-Pro tight end left Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings with a non-contact ankle injury, putting Chiefs Kingdom into a temporary panic. But Kelce would return, grabbing a touchdown and a few other clutch receptions in the 27-20 victory. Andy Reid said Kelce’s ankle was feeling better early this week than it was postgame, but he’s officially questionable for Thursday night. The Chiefs lost Week 1 to the Lions with Kelce out due to a knee injury, reinforcing just how important he is to this offense. Mahomes has attempted more difficult passes and has been less explosive without Kelce on the field. According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes has averaged +0.25 expected points added on his 112 dropbacks and completed 71.3% of his passes this season with Kelce on the field. In 97 dropbacks without Kelce on the field, Mahomes is averaging +0.04 EPA and completing 65.4%. Denver has defended Kelce pretty well in recent meetings, but the Chiefs sure hope he’ll suit up. If not, Mahomes likely will try to spread the ball around, with RBs Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon likely taking on larger roles.
- Broncos need to win the middle 30 minutes. First quarters haven’t been an issue for the Broncos, who have outscored their opponents 41-29 in the initial 15 minutes of games this season. It’s the second and third quarters where things have often fallen apart. Denver has been outscored 97-26 in the “middle 30” of games this season. In Week 2, a 21-3 lead evaporated. Week 3 went from a 14-7 deficit to being down 43 points four seconds into the fourth quarter. Their only win came in Week 4, when they dug themselves a 21-point hole. The Jets slowly chipped away at Denver’s early lead this past Sunday. The bulk of these breakdowns happened in the middle of games. It even happened in the first Broncos-Chiefs game last year, with Kansas City building a 27-0 late in the second quarter. Although Wilson has shown an ability to rally the Broncos, it’s playing with fire if they let the Chiefs dictate the script of the middle portion of the game.
- Denver’s defense will have its hands full either way. Let’s start with the not-terrible news: The Broncos are middle of the pack defensively in terms of sack and interception rates and third-down success. The problem? Most of the other numbers are near or at the bottom. Denver allows a stunning 187.6 rush yards per game, more than 50 more than the next-worst team. The pass defense gives up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, too — half a yard greater than any other defense. Coordinator Vance Joseph has come under fire for his unit’s play over the past four games, allowing an average of 498 yards and 41 points. How can they possibly stop the Chiefs, even if they’re banged up? As Cardinals defensive coordinator last year, Joseph tried an unusual approach to stopping Mahomes: by blitzing him 59.5% of his dropbacks, per NGS. Joseph’s approach didn’t work, as Mahomes diced up Arizona (30 of 39, 360 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT). Most teams don’t even attempt that — Mahomes has been blitzed a league-low 20.6% of his dropbacks since 2018 — but the Vikings had respectable success doing just that, blitzing Mahomes on 46.5% of his dropbacks Sunday. No matter what approach Joseph takes, his defense has struggled with the basics, such as covering receivers and tackling. You can send the house every play if you want, but if those areas aren’t fixed, it won’t matter.
- Chiefs defense can keep strong play going, but Broncos have threats. Kansas City’s defense is by no means a perfect unit, but there’s an argument to be made that it has helped steady the ship while the offense has fallen short of its typical Star Wars-like numbers. The run defense, pass-rush numbers and big plays in the pass game (only one INT) have been lacking. But the Chiefs are top 10 in some pretty important categories, including yards allowed, third-down defense and red-zone efficiency. They’re getting healthier, too, with LB Nick Bolton possibly returning Thursday. But the Broncos have enough playmakers to stress good defenses, especially with RB Javonte Williams back after missing Week 5 and Jaleel McLaughlin giving Denver’s offense a lift as a runner and receiver. WRs Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. all have double-digit catches and more than 200 yards receiving, and the emerging Brandon Johnson gives Wilson another viable target. Wilson also has shown more willingness to scramble, something he did effectively vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense last year. Kansas City’s corners have been terrific, and the pass rush likely will heat up eventually, but Denver appears to have the firepower to hang for four quarters.
