After an exciting month of soccer, the EURO 2024 comes to a close this weekend, as two greats slug it out in the Title Match. Spain has made their way to the Final looking strong the entire way, while we also have England limping their way into a second straight EURO Title Match appearance. Can the Three Lions find their revenge and finally hoist the trophy? Or will the young kids of Spain break England’s heart again?
Before we dive into the match, let’s look at how these teams fought to get here.
Road to the EURO 2024 Final
Pedri suffered a tournament-ending injury in the Quarterfinals
Spain’s Path
Spain has looked like the best team in the tournament since the beginning. They swept their group, winning all 3 matches and not allowing a since goal. Here’s how the three shutouts went.
- 3-0 vs Croatia
- 1-0 vs Italy
- 1-0 vs Albania
In what ended up being a very tough group, Spain prevailed and ended up on top. They’ve had 3 straight wins in the knockout rounds as well, only needing additional time in one of those matches. This time, their defense did allow some goals, but the offense was clicking and having no trouble finding the back of the net.
- 4-1 vs Georgia
- 2-1 vs Germany (ET)
- 2-1 vs France
Plain and simple, Spain has been incredible. They lost their young central midfielder in the quarterfinals to Germany, but Dani Olmo has stepped up in his place. This team is very deep, and we expected them to be in this position, which is why we have a +800 futures ticket riding on them.
Harry Kane has scored 3 goals for the English this tournament
England’s Path
England also topped their group, but it was much less dominating. England only gathered 5 points with a win and two draws, but it was enough to win their weaker group. Here’s how those games went down.
- 1-0 vs Serbia
- 1-1 vs Denmark
- 0-0 vs Slovenia
England topped the group and were paired with Slovakia in the round of 16 where they narrowly escaped on the final kick of the match. They went on to win in extra time, passed the Swiss in the Quarterfinals on PKs, and beat the Dutch in 90 minutes in the Semifinals.
- 2-1 vs Slovakia (ET)
- 1-1 vs Switzerland (PKs)
- 2-1 vs Netherlands
Jude Bellingham saved England in their first knockout match, and somehow they have found their way into the EURO Title. Despite not being as impressive as the Spanish, we did scope out a +300 future on England as well with the revenge narrative, so quite frankly, we are sitting pretty. This will be an incredible match, so let’s break it down.
Will England Finally End Their EURO Drought?
Can Jude Bellingham be England’s Hero in the EURO 2024 Final?
Matchup Information – Spain vs England
- Venue & Location: Olympiastadion Berlin (Berlin, Germany)
- Date: Sunday, July 14th, 2024
- Kick Off: 3:00pm Eastern
- Where to Watch: FOX
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.
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Money Line
- Spain +148
- Draw +187
- England +252
Total
- Over 2 (-116)
- Under 2 (-104)
To Lift the Cup
- Spain -150
- England +132
Spain Look to End Strong Tournament with 4th Trophy
Lamine Yamal netted a scorcher for the Spanish in the EURO Semifinals
These countries haven’t faced off since 2018 in the Nations League, so there is little relevance to past matchups. However, the teams split their two games, Spain winning 2-1, then England wining 3-2 a month later. But all that matters is now.
Plain and simple, Spain has been playing better soccer. They are scoring goals at will, playing incredibly solid defense, and are deep on their bench. Spain played without Pedri and defender Dani Carvajal in their Semifinal match against France, yet the defense only allowed a goal, and the offense did what it needed to do to win. Pedri is done for the tournament, but Carvajal back on the defensive line only increases their strength.
Although England has not looked as good as they can, they are still here. They’ve survived and advanced all the way to the final, plus they clearly have the motivational edge. England lost on penalty kicks to Italy in the EURO 2020 just three years ago. They scored in the 2nd minute and held the lead until the 67th, eventually losing in the most heartbreaking fashion. This team has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all tournament long, and that can carry teams a long way. Plus, England has never lifted the EURO trophy, and last year was their first time in the Final. I’m sure they will give it their all and not let the chance slip away once again.
However, Spain is good. They are young, talented and playing as well as anyone else. They have their own motivation with Pedri going down, and and silencing the doubters who say they are too inexperienced. Lamine Yamal became the youngest player to ever score in the EUROs in the Semifinals, and the rest of the squad is ready to rally around him.
Sitting with +800 for Spain and +300 for England, I am obviously rooting for the bigger payout. But let me tell you how I will be betting this match.
EURO 2024 Final: Spain vs England Best Bets
Can Morata step up and find the back of the net in the EURO Final Match?
EURO 2024 Title Prediction: Spain 2-0 (+1100)
Best Bets: Both Teams to Score No (-125) BetOnline
I know, I know, we’re taking the no fun bet again. Get over it. This is a 90 minute bet, and this is a great price. We are seeing this for (-140) on the rest of the market, so 15 cents of value is enough for me, and I’m confident Spain’s backline holds strong. It’s no secret that England has had trouble scoring this tournament. They only produced 2 goals in 3 Group Stage matches, and it took them 96 minutes to score against Slovakia, again, on the last kick of the match. This team just can’t keep getting lucky.
While I do endorse England TT Under 0.5 (+165) or even Spain to Nil at (+250), I see this being a low scoring affair, so I’ll take some cushion just in case I’m wrong and England ends up on top. With the return of Carvajal in the Spanish backline, I see them being able to hold strong against an offense that hasn’t looked very dangerous. If England ends up on top early, I’m sure Gareth Southgate will park the bus like normal, making an equalizer as difficult as possible. But, I see Spain scoring two late goals to win this match.
I also endorse the 1H Under 0.5 (+132), a classic 45 minute sweat, because although I see Spain playing aggressive and attacking, England could defend very well for 60-70 minutes. Eventually I think they fall victim to the Spanish onslaught and conceded. As far as the 2-nil prediction, I think England could give up a cheap one trying to find an equalizer as time is running out.
As for a quick history lesson on why I think we see a low scoring affair, the EURO Final Match has gone under 2.5 goals in 90 minutes in 9 of the last 10 tournaments. In 1996 and 2000, teams won on a golden goal rule in extra time, and Spain routed Italy 4-nil in 2012. Defense wins championships, tournaments, and trophies, and I think we see that come into play on Sunday.
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