NFL Power Rankings: Packers, Texans reach new heights heading into Divisional Round

Baltimore has turned over the roster in many areas since the 14-2 campaign in 2019, but some Ravens from that team remain, and they remember how that season ended: with a 28-12 thud of a loss to the Titans at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore outgained Tennessee, 530-300, but turned the ball over on seven of its 11 possessions (four turnovers on downs, two picks and a fumble). Lamar Jackson is one of the players who was there then and is here now — and he and John Harbaugh know better than anyone else how closely this coming Divisional Round game will be tied to their legacies, with only one postseason victory as a duo to this point. Baltimore looked like the best team in football down the stretch of the regular season, and that’s the team people are expecting to see in the of the playoffs. What does it take to beat No. 1? The Ravens do almost everything well, even if their run defense and pass protection can leak a little from time to time. They’re the clear favorites in this derby, although a few shocking Super Wild Card Weekend results must have put them on their toes a little bit.

Like the Ravens, Brock Purdy and the 49ers head into the Divisional Round with a ton of confidence. But the Packers roll into Santa Clara as one of the league’s hottest teams, and it’s worth noting that the 49ers were stomped twice — by the Bengals and Ravens — in their house. We still have a few questions. Can the pass protection hold up? The Packers sacked Dak Prescott four times and have 13 total sacks in their past three games, while the 49ers are still tinkering with their offensive line. Can they cover all of Green Bay’s weapons? Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir have been mostly great outside, but Pack rookie Jayden Reed could cause them problems out of the slot. I think San Francisco is a better team overall, but I am not discounting the upset possibility one bit. Kyle Shanahan’s 2021 49ers barely made the playoffs, but they won at Dallas to earn a shot at top-seeded Green Bay at Lambeau Field and squeaked past the Packers, 13-10, in a shocker. Two years later, the scenario has been flipped on its head. Will Matt LaFleur exact revenge here? The Niners must be prepared for an aerial assault Saturday night.

They’ll be making their fourth straight appearance in the Divisional Round, but this entire journey felt tougher than the previous three. Even Monday’s weather-delayed 31-17 victory wasn’t as easy as the final score might indicate. The Bills looked to be steaming their way to a blowout in the first half, from Kaiir Elam’s look-what-I-found pick to Josh Allen’s absurd 52-yard TD run. But the injuries kept piling up and the Steelers kept hanging around, keeping it a game well into the fourth quarter — until Khalil Shakir shook his way out of Minkah Fitzpatrick’s grasp and rumbled his way into the end zone. As admirable as replacements, such as Elam and A.J. Klein, played in the victory, all that defensive attrition could be costly heading into Sunday’s game against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Will CB Rasul Douglas be out again? If so, that would be big. CB Taron Johnson and LB Terrel Bernard also left Monday’s game, making the back seven appear eerily thin. But either way, you just know we’re going to get another Mahomes-Allen classic — and it’ll be the first one between them in Orchard Park since that bizarre Monday afternoon game during the COVID season.

If you’re a Lions fan and you wanted a second shot at the Cowboys, I completely understand. But when second prize is another home playoff game, no one is going to be standing in the return aisle. Detroit has enjoyed a storybook season to this point, and with second-seeded Dallas falling, the road to the Super Bowl is theoretically smoother. Yes, Lions fans, it’s OK to dream that big right now. No, the 24-23 win over the Rams didn’t come easily, as Los Angeles outplayed Detroit for stretches in that second half. But with a few key red zone stops and a couple of massive conversions late, the Lions were the grittier team late. That’s what Dan Campbell has defaulted to when things have gotten tough, and it’s led his group this far. Why can’t Jared Goff get this team to the promised land? The Lions will have to pray their defense can hold up, but this is as tough a non-Niners out as there is left in the NFC.

The Chiefs limped into the playoffs offensively, appearing to be buoyed by the return of Isiah Pacheco and a defense that has carried out business all season long. So, naturally, to start one of the coldest playoff games ever, the Chiefs came out throwing. When you have Patrick Mahomes, slumping passing game or not, you can afford to do that. And Kansas City did do that effectively, with Mahomes accounting for more than 300 total yards passing and rushing in the 26-7 win over the visiting Dolphins. Pacheco was big, too, eventually, as was the defense. But it was an important reminder that the Chiefs have the greatest weapon in their back pocket in these playoffs in the greatest quarterback of his generation. Mahomes might not have vaulted the Chiefs into the playoffs with his greatest season, but anyone dismissing his ability to take over said playoffs is fooling themselves. They’re back, baby. (I think.)

From coughing up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to blowing out the Browns in a home playoff game, it has been a heck of a 53-week stretch for the Texans. When you explain to your non-football-fan friends why the sport is so great, this phenomenon could stand as reasoning high on the list. This was mostly a trainwreck team a year ago — now it’s one win away from the AFC Championship Game. And with C.J. Stroud at the trigger, are you saying they can’t do it? In Week 1 at Baltimore, Stroud was held out of the end zone and sacked five times, losing a fumble on one. It was the only game Stroud started and finished without accounting for a TD, but this is a different Texans team now. Last week against the Browns — and a defense that some argued was in the same tier as the Ravens’ unit — Stroud chewed up Cleveland in the first half, and the game was over by midway through the third quarter. The Texans will roll into M&T Bank Stadium as big underdogs, naturally, but their rookie star and a playmaking defense give them plenty of bite.

The Packers won the coin toss to start Sunday’s game at Dallas, took the ball and scored a touchdown to immediately set the tone. After their second drive ended with a punt, they scored touchdowns on their next five straight possessions. Two TDs came off turnovers and short fields, but Green Bay’s other four scoring drives on the day each spanned 75 yards or longer. The Packers’ 93-yard TD drive gave them a 20-0 lead, and a few game minutes later, Darnell Savage completely opened the floodgates with a 64-yard pick-six. That was complete and utter domination — prior to Matt LaFleur easing up on the gas pedal — of a Cowboys team that had won 16 straight in their building. Yes, a suddenly scorching, Jordan Love-led passing game and a revived Aaron Jones have been huge drivers of the Packers’ late-season success. But let’s also give it up for Joe Barry’s much-maligned defense and the turnaround that unit has performed of late. The Packers are as equipped as any team to face the 49ers right now. It’ll be tough, but even the more-maligned special teams units are coming off their best game in months.

What Sunday’s staggering defeat ultimately means for Dallas is anyone’s guess, but this had to be as big a system shock as you could have imagined for owner Jerry Jones, head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys didn’t waltz into the postseason with an air of entitlement, you wouldn’t think, as December road losses at Buffalo and Miami and a skin-of-their-teeth home win over Detroit should have served as ample reminder that their margin for error was not at all massive. Maybe it was even smaller than we realized. Tabling Prescott’s issues for a moment, this defense turned out to be a huge problem. The unit that started out (mostly) gangbusters was quietly undressed a few times late in the season before the public disrobing in the playoffs. So, now what? This shocking mess of a situation following a regular season that started so promisingly — and ended with the Eagles gifting the Cowboys the division — has left Jones in a really tricky spot. Run it back or blow it up? Time is ticking, and the football world awaits his decisions.

Before you bite my head off for putting the Buccaneers below the Cowboys, please … spare my head? The Bucs demolished a battered Eagles team and absolutely deserve their flowers for it. I buried Tampa Bay at 4-7 and now look foolish for it. Todd Bowles has brought this team together, coaxed a career season out of Baker Mayfield and gotten some clutch performances out of his defense in big spots. My point is this: If the Cowboys and Bucs magically played in, I don’t know, Huntsville, Alabama, I think I’d set the line at Dallas -4.5. The Bucs will be underdogs in Detroit, too, and they were clearly outplayed in the 20-6 Lions victory (without Jahmyr Gibbs and with David Montgomery getting injured) back in Week 6. Mayfield didn’t have his best game in that one, and it started the Bucs’ 1-6 spell that nearly sunk their season. He’s been cooking of late, with 1,447 yards, 11 TDs and just two picks in his last five outings. The Bucs’ grit will give them a shot in Detroit, even if they’ll be up against it.

Sean McVay said that this Rams team helped him “find [his] way again,” and it’s another reminder of how delicate this whole franchise was when McVay weighed his future and considered walking away. Aaron Donald, too. What started as a “remodel” (GM Les Snead’s preferred word choice, over “rebuild,” a year ago) and a 3-6 record at the bye turned into a thrilling, breathtaking finish, one that saw the Rams a few eyelashes away from knocking out this postseason’s biggest feel-good favorite. They have a lot to be proud of this season, as the seasoned veterans held the core together, a few young vets stepped up and some precocious rookies — none more so than emerging star Puka Nacua — pulled the thing all together. The Rams won a Super Bowl in the 2021 campaign and then started out 3-3 the following season before dropping 15 of the next 20 games in 2022 and ’23. So it’s no wonder why people thought McVay could hang it up. Now? The Rams enter the offseason set to make their first Round 1 pick since taking Jared Goff No. 1 overall in 2016 — and they have $44 million in salary cap space to play with. Something tells me McVay is going to see this thing through.

The more the dust settles from Saturday’s humiliating playoff loss at Houston, the more the regular season should deserve to be viewed as a success. The Browns were gutted by injuries. They had quarterback problems — even when Deshaun Watson was healthy, and it was sometimes hard to tell when he was or wasn’t. Cleveland was the only team to beat the Ravens and 49ers, each conference’s No. 1 seed. Kevin Stefanski’s team went 8-1 at home and 7-2 in November and December — much of that with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Imagine pitching that storyline in October, when the Browns were still sorting things out. In fact, the season was an unmitigated triumph in the big-picture sense, even as the playoff loss appeared to tear much of that down. But now Cleveland enters another period of uncertainty, even with scores of injured players set to return next fall, as Watson clearly will be in the spotlight entering next season. What a fascinating offseason that lies ahead for the franchise.

It’s not easy to say, but the Dolphins have a Tua Tagovailoa problem. It would be absolutely criminal to write the autopsy of the 2023 Dolphins and not mention the state of the defense, which was torn to pieces by injuries down the stretch. But the Tagovailoa-led offense carries its own burden of appearing ill-equipped to survive an AFC gauntlet of contenders that are better-suited to handle January conditions than it is. Miami built its team based on game-changing speed and big-play flourish, but the cold reality is that bad weather can put a stop to that, especially with Tagovailoa’s arm often unable to cut through tough winds. The Dolphins are entering a critical offseason for their future if they want to consider other QB options. They can let Tua play out his fifth-year option, sign him to an extension or trade him. Those are the choices. Which would you pick? Even if Miami’s set to return a lot of talent next season, the choice is not an easy one.

It’s still hard to fathom how this season collapsed, even if there were some indications along the way to 10-1 that suggested the Eagles might not be as good as that record indicated. Put yourself in the shoes of some of those weathered vets following the slow, painful bloodletting in Tampa. Is this what Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham came back for? Or what Darius Slay came back from injury for? Beating the Bucs without A.J. Brown was always going to be tough, but it felt like the Eagles made themselves very beatable regardless. DeVonta Smith appeared to be laying it on the line, and the defensive line had some energy, but there were some bad vibes after a certain point — namely the safety/missed-tackle touchdown cluster in a crushing 1:01 span. Nothing was working for Nick Sirianni, either. Twice the Eagles took points off the board, and twice it worked against them. Damning words from FOX’s Troy Aikman during the broadcast, and this was when it was still a two-possession game with 11 minutes left: “It’s a defeated team, and they were coming in.” Feels like a big shakeup is coming in some form. And the roster already took a massive hit in the immediate aftermath of Monday’s defeat, as NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo reports that Kelce informed teammates he’s retiring.

For a team whose arrival was delayed by a whole day because of weather, it’s perhaps not shocking that the Steelers fell behind 21-0 at Buffalo before mounting a comeback that came up short. Pittsburgh’s season was a strange one for sure, zigging and zagging into and out of playoff contention. When all hope was lost, Mike Tomlin rallied his team into the postseason — with a little bit of help from a few other AFC teams — and he rallied them again Monday to make it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Tomlin has a year left on his contract, but recent reports suggest he will take time to decide his future now that Pittsburgh’s season is over. It’s hard to ponder in the immediate aftermath of their playoff loss, especially after Tomlin walked off the podium after being asked about his contract status, but if he doesn’t return, it should be his decision to walk away. If Tomlin hasn’t earned that, what are we doing here? The Steelers are far from great — I get that — but he’s kept this franchise quite relevant for most of his 17 seasons at the helm. And good luck to whoever follows the guy, if that’s where we’re headed. I know Tomlin was cloaked by giants’ shadows when he arrived, but there’s no guarantee that any successor would enjoy the success he’s had.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: In a team meeting Tuesday, Mike Tomlin told Steelers players that he plans to return as head coach in 2024, NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo reported.