Although the thrill of College Football being back with Week 0 beginning today, we are still in the middle of a very exciting MLB season! Today at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins host the St. Louis Cardinals, as both teams battle for a playoff spot. After losing last night, the Twins officially fell to 3rd in the AL Central standings, 2 games behind the Guardians and 1 behind the Royals. They still hold the final spot in the Wild Card race, but Minnesota is certainly gunning for the top of the division.
As for the Cardinals, they are in 2nd in the NL Central, but still a full 10 games behind the Brewers who have all but wrapped up the division. St. Louis has plenty of work to do as they are also 5 games out of a Wild Card spot, with 3 teams they will need to jump if they want a spot in the postseason. We are in for quite the thrilling matchup on the mound as Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez get the nods for their teams. Both pitchers are searching for their 12th win of the season, and post sub 1.20 WHIPs.
The teams are streaking in opposite directions, as the Cardinals are on a 3 game winning streak, including beating the Twins last night on the road, 6-1. On the other side of things, the Twins have dropped 4 of their L5 games, including 4 of their L6 at Target Field. The Twins are 36-25 at home while the Cardinals are 30-34 on the road, but St. Louis certainly has momentum on their side. Let’s dive into this matchup and see if we can find any best bets!
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins: Pitching Duel Today
Can Gray shove on the road against the Twins?
Game Information – Cardinals vs Twins
- Venue & Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, MN)
- Date: Saturday, August 24th, 2024
- First Pitch: 7:10pm Eastern
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Cardinals vs Twins Starting Pitchers
- St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (11-8, 3.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
- Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 4.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
- Twins -1.5 (+155)
Money Line
- Cardinals +125
- Twins -136
Total
- Over 7.5 (-115)
- Under 7.5 (-105)
Low Total as Lopez, Gray Take the Mound
Pablo Lopez has 11 wins for the Twins this year
While we do have two studs on the mound tonight, their splits might suggest we see some runs. Pablo Lopez already has an ERA of 4.47, and it jumps to nearly 5.00 at home this year. He’s also significantly better during the day, with a 2.93 ERA in day games, and 6.01 ERA at night. He’s pitched 71 innings in both scenarios, so it’s worth noting his improvement during the day and on the road. Against the Cardinals bats with his decreased splits, I could see Lopez struggling a bit.
In his last outing, he pitched 6 shutout innings, but the Twins still took the loss at Texas. Now Lopez won his most recent start at home against the Royals, pitching 6 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs, but prior to that he was 0-1 in 3 straight home starts. The Cardinals’ bats see a slight improvement hitting against RHP, as their average leaps above .252.
As for the Cardinals’ pitching, Sonny Gray is significantly worse on the road. He posts a 2.72 Home ERA, while on the road it is inflated to 5.43. Gray is also coming off 2 straight losses, allowing 8 earned runs in just 10 innings pitched on 12 hits and 5 walks. He also has allowed 4 home runs in his L2 starts, and a home run in 4 straight outings. Gray might get rocked today, as the Twins bats jump from hitting .253 to .266 at Target Field. We certainly didn’t see that last night, but they are still hitting .259 in August, and they desperately need a win.
Despite these two studs on the mound, I will be taking the bait on this low total and betting on some runs.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Best Bets
Let’s hope we see some runs in Minnesota tonight
Cardinals vs Twins Prediction: Twins Win
Best Bet: STL/MIN Over 7.5 (-115) BetOnline
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I think this total is too low, even for these pitchers. With their terrible splits, and the hitters recent performances, I’ll back some runs in this game tonight at Target Field. According to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen), these teams combined for 3 Great Hitters, and 8 others with an Above Average Matchup rating. While more of these hitters are on the St. Louis side, I can’t deny how good Minnesota bats at home.
Much like my home town Royals, the Twins seem to be a different animal at home, and of course, Gray struggles on the road. He’s also been getting shelled recently, so I love the “bounce back” narrative after Minnesota only put up 1 run on the board yesterday. Today I am trusting the stats and data, which are telling me that these batters are going to feast off the opposing pitcher, no matter the name on the back of the jersey. It’s much more fun to root for overs anyways, so let’s hope we see some runs tonight.
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