NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Running Backs

I know, I know. I’m the hockey guy at Betting News. I go by Gretzky Betzky, I host PUCK IT and I eat, breathe and sleep puck. But I’m also an AVID fantasy football nerd who is in two dynasty leagues, partaking in 5+ leagues annually and been addicted to being a fake GM for 15 years now. From draft day on I will watch player ADP like they are stock tickers, hunting down value. And while the NHL is snoozing, I’ll be contributing my NFL expertise in the fantasy football realm.

This will become an ongoing series where I highlight players who REEK of value in fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about grabbing McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

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So without further ado, let’s kick it off with NFL fantasy footabll 2024 top 3 value picks: the running backs. It’s mock draft season baby!!!

1. Running Back Value Round Two: Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne is primed for a bounce back season

Last season I was all about Travis Etienne. The Jacksonville Jaguars were coming off one of the most entertaining playoff wins in potentially the entire history of the NFL when they came from a 7-27 deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers to win 31-30. The hype was real.

Quaterback Trevor Lawrence was ready to be crowned the next big fantasy quarterback and the team’s offense was projected to roll. Well, none of those things really happened in the 2023-2024 NFL season. And all the skill players took a step back both in real life football and in fantasy football.

But I’m willing to chalk that up to bad luck and regression that was somewhat expected with more film on the team’s offense and better reads on Lawerence. This is a team that is still deep on skill positions, and have added stud WR Brian Thomas Jr. I expect Lawerence and the Jaguars to bounce back both in fantasy and real life and think just about every skill position is a fantasy football value play, especially Travis Etienne.

The second round of fantasy drafts is currently made up of two types of running backs, top vet players and 2nd year standouts. I am not willing to use a 2nd on players like Saquon Barkely who is oft injured and will be on a new team with a QB who can hawk TD’s in Jalen Hurt’s Eagles. Johnathan Taylor is in a similar situation in Indiana. Achane and Kyren Williams are the two second year players often found in Round Two and I feel both have questionable workloads. So give me Etienne everyday here.

It may not feel like it, but last season Etienne ranked #3 for running backs specific .5 PPR formats. While he had over 100 less yards than his rookie campaign and a much worse YPC (3.78 vs 5.11) he made up for this in an increase in touchdowns and receptions. He had 12 TD’s, 7 more than his rookie season, and nearly 20 more receptions. In fact, I’d be very comfortable with reaching for Etinne early in the 2nd round.

Chances are Etienne will have less than 12 TD’s this season. But I believe that should balance with the increased receiving role we saw from him last season, meaning there’s a good chance you are getting a top 5 running back in Round Two of fantasy drafts. This is the best fantasy football running back value found in round 2!

Travis Etienne o925.5 rushing yards for -110 on BetOnline:

This feels very undervalued. Etinne has had over 1,000 rushing yards in both of his seasons. The Jaguars haven’t exactly added much talent to the backfield, with recently drafted Tank Bigsby not showing much upside in his rookie campaign. This lack of competition should mean Etienne gets a bulk of the workload equating in him flying past this bet line.

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2. Value Running Backs Round Three: Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco has a safe floor in Round Three

Round 3 gets a little bit bleak on the running back front. There are tons of great wide receivers here but if you went WR-WR in the first two rounds there is a particular RB who I’d be thrilled to have as my first running back off the board, and that’s Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is the lead back for the top tier Kansas City Chief’s offense. He was Mr. Reliable last season. While he has not ranked higher than the 17th best RB, his role on the team continues to grow. Both head coach Andy Reid and Mahommes put more trust in him.

Pacheco had 9 touchdowns last season, two of which were receiving. He had 5 in his rookie campaign. As mentioned above, he was the 17th ranked RB last season in .5 PPR leagues, but this was largely due to him missing 3 games. The violent runner only had a single game under double digit fantasy points in full PPR leagues (9.99 points) as he has developed into a dual threat.

Mahommes has clearly began to trust his receiving abilities as he went from 14 targets to 49 in his first two seasons. This was a huge improvement that lead to 244 receiving yards on 44 receptions. Kansas City also has several viable running backs. None of which are overly talented where they will steal Pacheco’s workload. And they should help ensure he doesn’t breakdown from being overworked.

While Pacheco only ended with 191.9 fantasy points in .5 PPR leagues, he was on pace for 246.7 points without missing games. He averaged 13.7 fantasy points across the 14 games he did play in .5 PPR leagues. This is the type of fantasy football running back value you normally can’t find in the 3rd round of drafts and I would be thrilled to have him as my RB1 if I took WR’s in the first two rounds.

Isiah Pacheco o900.5 rushing yards for -115 on BetOnline:

Pacheco has 935 rushing yards in 14 games with a 4.56 YPC. A healthy Pacheco should be able to sore past this line. He was on pace for 1,135.26 yards in a full 17 games and the competition is arguably more scarce than last season. The Chiefs have a strong receiving core as well, with the likes of Rice and Moore being more experienced, rookie receive Xavier Worthy and bringing in veteran Hollywood Brown. This should lead to teams being unable to stack the box and lead to more opportunities for Pacheco.

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3. Round Four Value Running Backs: Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara missed several games from suspension and still produced

The running back position feels fairly deep in fantasy football this season. There is value to be had from rounds 4 and on, leading to WR-WR being a very viable strategy. As mentioned above, snagging Pacheco as my RB1 in the third round would feel great. Adding Alvin Kamara in round 4 would be the icing on the cake for running back value in the first four rounds of fantasy football.

While the years of Kamara being a top 5 running back may be behind him, he is still a premier dual threat at the position. In fact he ranked 11th in PPR leagues in positional rankings despite only playing 13 games. He started the season on a four game suspension and nearly had a career low of 6 total touchdowns. This feels like the type of regression to pounce on.

Kamara will be 29 when the season begins and the New Orleans Saints took some hits on their O-line and offense in general. There will also be some competition for targets and attacks with 2nd year back Kendre Miller’s role taking another step. However, the Saints didn’t exactly improve at wide receiver. Chris Olave will still be the top target, but after him there are NPC’s such as Rashid Shaheed and Cedrick Wilson competing for the WR2 role.

Perhaps veteran QB will rely heavily on Kamara to be his 2nd favorite receiving target. Last season Kamara had 86 targets in 13 games, 6.61 targets per game. He managed 75 receptions across those games as well with 466 receiving yards. Now back to that competition. Some of Kamara’s best seasons were when the Saints rolled our bruiser Mark Ingram and Kamara as a one-two punch. This offense looks primed to attack through hundreds of small cuts rather than big plays. So the emergence of Miller could help Kamara take on more of a slot receiver role.

I took Kamara in nearly every draft last season as he was a round 6 staple due to his suspension. There’s still a chance that Kamara drops into the 5th round once rookie fever and training camp hype kicks in. This is exactly the type of fantasy football running back value I’m looking for. Feed me Alvin everywhere.

Alvin Kamara u4.5 rushing touchdowns for -110 on BetOnline:

I know, I know. This doesn’t really go with the narrative of value. Less than 5 rushing touchdowns doesn’t exactly sound like a vote of confidence. But don’t worry, because I think Kamara will eat still with receiving TD’s. He has only had less than 5 rushing TD’s twice in his career and had 5 last season. But the running back core was broken for most of last season. Kendre Miller missing most of the season and Jamaal Williams (who could be a goal line vulture) missed loads of time. Kamara only had a single receiving TD last season. Since 2017 he has had 4+ receiving TD’s four times. I could see him getting 3-4 rushing and 5-6 receiving TD’s this season while being a PPR machine.

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NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Top 3 Value Picks: Running Backs

1. Running Back Value Round Two: Travis Etienne

2. Value Running Backs Round Three: Isiah Pacheco

3. Round Four Value Running Backs: Alvin Kamara

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