Power Rankings Notebook: 3 teams better than they seem, Sixers' strong shooting and LaMelo's vision

Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, with a 10-10 record, are currently 9th in the West standings.

Each week during the season, NBA.com writer John Schuhmann surveys the league to compile stats and notes for his in-depth Power Rankings. Before the next rankings drop on Monday, here are some of the storylines he’s keeping an eye on this weekend.

1. What the Standings Don’t Tell Us

With apologies to Bill Parcells, a team’s record doesn’t tell us the whole story.

On Wednesday, we passed the 1/3 mark of the season, with 368 of 1,080 games played. We’ve learned from history that a team’s record after 20 games can tell us a lot. In the 20 full (82-game) seasons from 1997-98 to 2018-19, 92% of the teams that won at least 12 of their first 20 games made the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of teams that won fewer than eight of their first 20 games would go on to reach the postseason.

This season stands out for several reasons. Apart from issues related to the pandemic, the playoff system has also been modified. Rather than stopping at the top eight teams in each conference, it now stops after the top six teams (who automatically qualify for the playoffs), and then again after teams ranked 7-10, also known as “the Play-In Club”.

As of the games on Wednesday, the Miami Heat, currently in 11th place, are trailing the Toronto Raptors by one and a half games. The Raptors have unexpectedly moved up to fifth place with a record of 12-13 in the Eastern Conference. Over in the Western Conference, a mere two and a half games split the fifth-place Blazers (13-10) and the 13th-place Houston Rockets (11-13).

To distinguish between teams that are around .500, we can analyze several statistics to determine the authenticity of their record.

• Point differential – A team with a lot of narrow losses and bigger wins might be better than their record says.

• Strength of schedule – If a team has played a relatively tough schedule, they could be in for better results in the future.

• Opponent 3-point percentage and free throw percentage – These numbers can be random, and if a team has been unlucky in how well their opponents have shot from deep or from the line, their defense may be better than currently ranked.

• Health – If the team’s best players have missed a bunch of games, they could be much improved when healthy.

(* There’s some overlap between the second and third items above. If you’ve played a tougher schedule, you’ve probably played the better shooting teams.)

We evaluated all teams based on the four factors mentioned above to determine which ones might be poised for an upswing and which ones might have slightly exaggerated records. We ranked each team and added up these rankings for a comprehensive assessment.

For our health evaluation, we considered the number of matches missed by the top eight players of the team, as per the duration they played. We gave more importance to the top four players, hence an absence of Karl-Anthony Towns would matter more than that of Mike Scott. We didn’t consider players who are out for the season like Spencer Dinwiddie, as their absence won’t affect future performance. However, we did count players like Jaren Jackson Jr., who haven’t played yet but are expected to be among the top eight when they start playing.

Better than they seem?

Here are the 3 teams that are performing better than what their record indicates:

1. Indiana (12-13) – T.J. Warren has played in just four games, and Caris LeVert has yet to play for his new team. The Pacers rank 25th in opponent 3-point percentage, so they could see better results going forward. Their point differential says they should have one additional victory and they’ve played one of the league’s 10 toughest schedules. Their game in Detroit on Thursday is the start of five straight against teams no better than the 11-13 Hawks and Rockets.

2. Detroit (6-18) – The Pistons have the league’s second worst record, but they’ve played its toughest schedule (they have wins over the Celtics, Suns, Sixers, Lakers and Nets) and they have the point differential of a team that’s 8-16. They’re 2-12 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes and 4-6 otherwise.

3. Memphis (10-10) – The Grizzlies have played the league’s sixth toughest schedule and have had some bad luck with opponent shooting, ranking 28th in opponent 3-point percentage. They’ve also been without Jackson for the entire year and Ja Morant for eight of their 20 games.

The next three: Denver (second toughest schedule, two fewer wins than their point differential would indicate), Minnesota (Towns has played in just five games, relatively tough schedule), and Dallas (tough schedule, health issues).

Not that good?

Here are the three teams whose performance doesn’t seem to match their record:

1. Utah (20-5) – The Jazz have established themselves as a contender, but have been fortunate in regard to health, with just 10 total games missed from their top eight guys. They rank fifth in opponent 3-point percentage and have played one of the league’s 10 easiest schedules, with 15 of their 25 games having come against teams that currently have losing records.

2. L.A. Lakers (20-6) – The Lakers rank third in opponent 3-point percentage, so we could see some slippage from that No. 1 defense at some point. They’ve been very healthy and have played a relatively easy schedule, with 16 of their 26 games having come against teams that are currently at or below .500.

3. Orlando (9-16) – We’re not counting injuries to Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac, because those guys aren’t coming back this season. The Magic have had injury issues beyond those two, but they’ve played the league’s second easiest schedule and have the point differential of a team that’s 6-19.

The next three: Philadelphia (league’s easiest schedule to date), and Phoenix (relatively easy schedule, luck with opponent shooting), New York (first in opponent 3-point percentage, sixth in opponent free throw percentage), and Oklahoma City (10-14, with the point differential of a team that’s 7-17).

2. Sixers’ Starters Sweet Shooting

With their win in Sacramento on Tuesday, the Philadelphia 76ers are 14-0 when they’ve had their full starting lineup. When one or more of their five starters has been out, the Sixers are 4-7, with the most recent of those losses having come last Thursday, when, playing without Ben Simmons, they lost at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, who were without Damian Lillard.

Overall, the Sixers have been better on defense (where they rank second) than on offense (13th). But that starting lineup has rather potent offensively.

• Thursday on TNT: 76ers vs. Blazers (10 ET)

The 120.1 points per 100 possessions that the Sixers’ starting lineup has scored ranks third among 23 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes this season. It has the second highest turnover rate among the 23 (15.6 per 100 possessions), but the second highest free throw rate (33.1 attempts per 100 shots from the field) and, most important, the highest effective field goal percentage (60.8%).

Interestingly, the Sixers’ starting lineup has shown their greatest strength when shooting from outside the paint. In comparison to the league average effective field goal percentage of 51.9% for shots outside the paint, the Sixers’ starting lineup boasts a higher percentage at 64.1%. They have a shooting record of 42 out of 77 (54.5%) from mid-range and 78 out of 171 (45.6%) from the 3-point range, which includes an impressive 50% accuracy with 25 out of 50 on corner 3-pointers.

Sixers’ shooters from outside the paint with the starting lineup:

With other lineups:

Those numbers are likely unsustainable. But the shooters obviously benefit from Ben Simmons (who leads the league with 97 assists on 3-pointers) bending the defense with his pushes in transition and from Joel Embiid drawing attention in the post.

The Sixers consistently dodge stagnation, ranking seventh in ball movement with 350 passes per 24 minutes of possession. This is a significant increase from last season when they were 14th with 333 passes. They fall in the middle in terms of player movement, moving 11.2 miles per 24 minutes of possession which places them 18th. However, they’ve also seen an improvement in this area.

With that initial team, the goal is clearly to pass the ball back and forth. As the ball moves to the left side of the court and Harris emerges from the corner to receive a handoff from Embiid, Green moves to the right side, taking a defender with him. This gives Embiid a clear path to the basket…

The Sixers’ four-game trip only gets tougher as it goes. They’ll have an opportunity for revenge against the Blazers in Portland on Thursday (10 p.m. ET, TNT). They’re in Phoenix on Saturday (3 p.m. ET, NBA TV) and complete the trip in Utah on Monday (9 p.m. ET, League Pass).

3. Rockets Still Stagnant

It was noted in this week’s Power Rankings that the Brooklyn Nets had, not surprisingly, seen drops in ball and player movement since acquiring James Harden. But on the other side of that trade, the Houston Rockets haven’t exactly turned into the 2014 Spurs.

When the trade was made up until January 13, the Rockets were 27th in ball movement with 313 passes per 24 minutes of possession, and they were last in player movement, with only 10.4 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession. There has been a slight improvement in both areas since then, but as of January 14, they are still only ranked 23rd with 317 passes and 28th with 10.8 miles traveled.

A couple of players on the Rockets – David Nwaba and Jae’Sean Tate – are known for their energetic play. However, there can sometimes be a lack of movement in their offense. This was evident during a possession after a timeout in their disappointing defeat in Charlotte on Monday…

Houston hasn’t had much continuity. Since Victor Oladipo made his Rockets debut on Jan. 18, only Tate, DeMarcus Cousins and P.J. Tucker have played in all 13 of their games. John Wall and Oladipo have played just 102 minutes together and just 53 minutes with Christian Wood, who’s currently out with an ankle injury. So it’s understandable that guys aren’t yet on the same page.

It can’t be forgotten that the Rockets rank fourth defensively, second (105.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) since the Harden trade. But their last two games (losses in Charlotte and New Orleans) have been their two worst defensive games of the season (126 per 100 allowed over the two games), and if you’re looking for a free-flowing offense unencumbered from Harden’s isolation game, you may have to wait a while.

The Rockets should have both Wall and Oladipo in the lineup when they host the Heat on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT).

4. LaMelo Plays it Safe

LaMelo Ball takes some chances with his passing. Late in the first quarter of their win over Houston on Monday, the not-so-mobile DeMarcus Cousins was able to leave his man and easily intercept a lob pass from Ball to Miles Bridges. In the fourth quarter, the Hornets ran the same play and Ball was able to squeeze the pass between Tate and Mason Jones …

However, later during the fourth quarter, as the Hornets were widening their lead, Ball demonstrated more prudence. Bismack Biyombo was sprinting free on the right side of the court, but Ball held off until Biyombo, who at 28 is not as dynamic or coordinated as Bridges, was firmly grounded before carefully throwing a lob…

Maybe Ball was more cautious in that situation because he was aiming for his 10th assist.

5. Most Prolific Assist Combinations

Ball’s 31 assists to Bridges (watch them all here) are the most he has to a single teammate (he also has 30 to Gordon Hayward), but aren’t enough to crack the top 25 in regard to most assists from one player to a single teammate. Here’s the top 15, headlined by a pairing featured in this space last week, along with the rate of assists per 36 minutes on the floor together:

Most assists from one player to a single teammate, 2020-21

MIN = Minutes on the floor together
Per 36 = Assists per 36 minutes on the floor together

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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