The Los Angeles Lakers have LeBron James and a reported deal in place to acquire Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans. In the quest for a 17th championship, two of the best players in the league is a great start.
But, with free agency set to begin at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, there remains a lot of work to be done in regard to the rest of the Lakers’ roster, which will be left pretty barren in the wake of the Davis trade. Here are the details, according to multiple reports…
Lakers receive: Anthony Davis
Pelicans receive: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, the No. 4 pick (De’Andre Hunter, later sent to Atlanta), the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2021 (top-8 protected), the right to swap picks in 2023, and the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2024 (that New Orleans can defer to 2025).
On July 1, the Lakers will have eight players under contract. Three of those eight will be sent to New Orleans and three of the five remaining — Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones and Mo Wagner — have a total of 709 minutes of NBA experience. That leaves a lot for the Lakers to consider going forward …
Remaining cap space
The Lakers would possess more salary cap space before the trade compared to after due to Davis’ salary being significantly larger than the combined salaries of Ball, Hart, and Ingram. However, if they use up most or all of this additional cap space by taking on free agents before the trade is finalized, resulting in exceeding the salary cap post-trade, they would then need to incorporate the salary of the No. 4 pick into the deal. This is to ensure the outgoing salary nearly matches Davis’. To facilitate this, they would have to wait for 30 days post the signing of Hunter to his rookie contract.
They could do it before Hunter is signed if they expanded the deal to include the contracts of Bonga, Jones and Wagner. And they would likely need an additional team (or teams) to take on those contracts.
If they are unable to postpone the trade or find buyers for those contracts, they have the option to proceed with the trade as is. However, they wouldn’t have the necessary cap space (approximately $33 million) to propose a max contract to a free agent with seven to nine years of experience, such as Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, or Kemba Walker.
Of course, when talking about the Lakers’ cap space, we can’t forget that $5 million of it is being taken up (for each of the next three seasons) by the stretched contract of Luol Deng (who they signed in that disastrous summer of 2016). Should they not delay the trade or find takers for those three extra contracts, that $5 million is the difference between the space they need to sign one of the above players to the max and what they’ll actually have (about $28 million if they get Davis to waive his trade kicker, which he may not do anyway).
A new star combo
James and Davis seem to complement each other perfectly. James, with his reputation as one of the NBA’s top playmakers, pairs well with Davis, renowned as one of the league’s finest finishers. Interestingly, Davis is one of only three players who have achieved more than a 70 percent success rate on at least 2,000 tries in the restricted area over the past five years. James is another one of these three players.
Davis has been assisted on about two-thirds of his field goals over his career. James, meanwhile, ranks fourth with 8.8 assists per game over the last three seasons.
Davis is a unique offensive powerhouse that James has not usually teamed up with, as Davis is more of an inside scorer rather than an outside one. In the past three seasons, only 40 percent of James’ assists – ranking 59th out of 106 players with a total of 500 assists – have been on shots inside the restricted area. However, in those same three years, James’ team members have had a better shooting percentage in the restricted area with him on the court (64.3 percent) than without him (61.4 percent).
Last season, Davis scored just 1.02 points per possession as a roll man, according to Synergy play-type tracking. That ranked 19th among 22 players who averaged at least three roll man possessions per game and was down from 1.18 (fourth among players with three per game) in 2017-18.
James ought to assist Davis in reaching his full potential as a “roll man”. However, the term “roll man” includes pick-and-pop jumpers, and Davis’ shooting performance outside the paint has declined over the past two seasons (35.2 percent) compared to his performance in the three seasons prior (41.1 percent).
He has somewhat compensated for that drop by improving his 3-point rate. However, this season, he still recorded 1.6 times more mid-range shots than 3-pointers. Despite being the lowest rate in his career, it was the seventh highest among 218 players who attempted at least 200 shots from outside the paint. (Out of those 218 players, only 23 took more mid-range shots than 3-pointers.)
Davis’ effective field goal percentage from outside the paint (40.9 percent) ranked 209th among those 218 players. James’ (48.1 percent) ranked 137th. So, while one is an elite passer and both are elite finishers, they’re not a perfect fit in regard to scoring inside and out.
Shooters needed (and soon)
Wagner may continue to serve as a reserve player, but beyond Davis, James, and Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers’ depth chart post-trade is lacking. Regarding Kuzma, his effective field goal percentage from shots outside the paint is 44.5 percent, putting him at 187th place among the 218 players with a minimum of 200 field goal attempts. The Lakers’ frontline may be excellent and flexible, but they lack depth and have no backcourt at all. Reggie Bullock, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Lance Stephenson are all unrestricted free agents and none seem like clear choices to return.
Whether or not the Lakers can get rid of those three smaller contracts, they might be better off spreading their remaining cap space around (rather than using it on a third star). With James and Davis, they need to add as much shooting as possible. In James’ first season in L.A., the Lakers (33.6 percent) ranked last in catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage, with Kuzma having the third-worst mark (31.7 percent) among 101 players with at least 200 attempts.
The good news? Six of the top nine catch-and-shoot 3-point shooters (minimum 100 attempts) from last season are free agents. Additionally, 20 free agents this summer shot 40 percent or better on at least 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Four of those 20 are Irving, Leonard, Thompson and Kevin Durant, but the Lakers should find some realistic targets among the remaining 16.
| Player | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Curry | 79 | 167 | 47.3% | 78 | 157 | 49.7% | 70.7% |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 88 | 184 | 47.8% | 86 | 181 | 47.5% | 71.2% |
| Danny Green | 179 | 379 | 47.2% | 172 | 363 | 47.4% | 69.9% |
| Quinn Cook | 62 | 129 | 48.1% | 55 | 118 | 46.6% | 69.4% |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | 142 | 310 | 45.8% | 131 | 292 | 44.9% | 66.9% |
| Darren Collison | 61 | 138 | 44.2% | 51 | 116 | 44.0% | 62.7% |
| Danuel House Jr. | 57 | 133 | 42.9% | 56 | 132 | 42.4% | 63.9% |
| J.J. Redick | 181 | 424 | 42.7% | 151 | 356 | 42.4% | 60.5% |
| Ryan Arcidiacono | 69 | 164 | 42.1% | 68 | 162 | 42.0% | 62.8% |
| Mike Scott | 101 | 247 | 40.9% | 96 | 229 | 41.9% | 60.3% |
| Patrick Beverley | 86 | 211 | 40.8% | 86 | 210 | 41.0% | 61.1% |
| Nik Stauskas | 47 | 116 | 40.5% | 45 | 110 | 40.9% | 59.9% |
| Harrison Barnes | 146 | 366 | 39.9% | 140 | 347 | 40.3% | 59.0% |
| JaMychal Green | 87 | 205 | 42.4% | 64 | 159 | 40.3% | 58.0% |
| Wesley Matthews | 124 | 307 | 40.4% | 118 | 294 | 40.1% | 59.6% |
| Wilson Chandler | 56 | 144 | 38.9% | 56 | 140 | 40.0% | 58.3% |
| List does not include Kyrie Irving (45.4%), Kevin Durant (40.8%), Kawhi Leonard (40.8%) or Klay Thompson (40.5%). |
Another playmaker?
Last year’s strategy of putting playmakers (instead of shooters) around James didn’t work. The 2018-19 Lakers were the lowest ranked offensive team — they ranked 24th at 107.4 points scored per 100 possessions — that James has played for in his 16 seasons. (The 109.0 points per 100 possessions they scored in the 55 games that James played in would have ranked 19th, which would have been the second-lowest that any James team has ranked.)
This does not imply that the Lakers for the next season don’t require playmaking apart from James, who turns 35 in December. Lightening his offensive responsibilities could potentially enable him to dedicate more energy towards defense.
If the Lakers are looking for both shooting and playmaking, the most interesting option would be D’Angelo Russell (whom the Lakers traded to the Brooklyn Nets two years ago). Russell shot 39.4 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season and also had the most assists (563) among free agents.
Russell is a restricted free agent, but if the Nets choose to upgrade to Irving (as has been widely reported) at point guard, they may let Russell walk. And he probably won’t command a maximum starting salary (about $27.3 million for a player with 0-6 years of experience).
Brogdon presents another option as a dual-threat guard, however, as a restricted free agent, it might be more challenging to get him away from the Milwaukee Bucks. Potential unrestricted options could be Patrick Beverley and Darren Collison.
Still need to get stops, too
Beverley, Brogdon or Collison would help make up for the loss of Ball on defense. The Lakers ranked a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency last season. But they were seventh (106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) at the time of Ball’s season-ending injury and ranked 22nd (112.4) thereafter. They allowed 102.7 per 100 with James and Ball on the floor together, but 107.9 per 100 with James on the floor without Ball. (He will now team with Jrue Holiday in what may be the league’s best defensive backcourt.)
Davis ranked low in high-volume rim protection rankings, with opponents shooting 63.9 percent at the rim when he was there to protect it. But with his length and athleticism, he should be able to make up for James’ defensive issues more than any guard.
During the previous season, Davis had an average of 1.69 steals and blocks for each personal foul, a decrease from 1.94 in the preceding season. Despite the drop, his rate was the highest among players who played a minimum of 1,000 minutes. He, along with Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers, was among the two players who played at least 1,000 minutes and recorded more blocks (135) than fouls (132).
The Lakers will continue to require defense on the perimeter. Regardless of whether they acquire a point guard such as Beverley or Collison, there is a need to defend against opposing star players. Last season, 17 free agents defended at least 150 total possessions against the league’s top five wing scorers (James Harden, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Leonard).
- Al-Farouq Aminu
- Trevor Ariza
- Harrison Barnes
- Reggie Bullock
- Jimmy Butler
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Kevin Durant
- Dorian Finney-Smith (restricted)
- Danny Green
- Justin Holiday
- Wesley Matthews
- Khris Middleton
- Iman Shumpert
- Garrett Temple
- Klay Thompson
- * Noah Vonleh
- * Thaddeus Young
* Possessions defending Antetokounmpo account for more than 85 percent of their total.
Four individuals – Butler, Durant, Middleton, and Thompson – are likely outside of the Lakers’ financial reach. Bullock and Caldwell-Pope are currently free agents from the Lakers. Barnes, Green, and Matthews are also included in the previously mentioned catch-and-shoot list.
The trade market?
When it comes to completing their roster and utilizing cap space, the Lakers have more options than just free agency. They could also consider making additional trades beyond their agreement with New Orleans. However, given that they’re trading many of their draft picks and young players for Davis, their ability to offer appealing trades to other teams for valuable players is somewhat restricted.
Clearly, procuring Davis was a significant move toward competition for the Lakers. However, the trade will present a challenging journey to assemble a capable supporting crew around their two stars.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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