The Los Angeles Lakers have LeBron James and a reported deal in place to acquire Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans. In the quest for a 17th championship, two of the best players in the league is a great start.
But, with free agency set to begin at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, there remains a lot of work to be done in regard to the rest of the Lakers’ roster, which will be left pretty barren in the wake of the Davis trade. Here are the details, according to multiple reports…
Lakers receive: Anthony Davis
Pelicans receive: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, the No. 4 pick (De’Andre Hunter, later sent to Atlanta), the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2021 (top-8 protected), the right to swap picks in 2023, and the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2024 (that New Orleans can defer to 2025).
On July 1, the Lakers will have eight players under contract. Three of those eight will be sent to New Orleans and three of the five remaining — Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones and Mo Wagner — have a total of 709 minutes of NBA experience. That leaves a lot for the Lakers to consider going forward …
Remaining cap space
The Lakers’ cap space would decrease after the trade due to Davis’ salary being much higher than the combined salaries of Ball, Hart, and Ingram. However, if they use most or all of their additional cap space to sign free agents before the trade is finalized, which would result in them exceeding the salary cap post-trade, they would have to include the salary of the No. 4 pick in the transaction. This would ensure the outgoing salary nearly matches Davis’. To do this, they would need to wait 30 days after Hunter signs his rookie contract.
They could do it before Hunter is signed if they expanded the deal to include the contracts of Bonga, Jones and Wagner. And they would likely need an additional team (or teams) to take on those contracts.
If they are unable to postpone the trade or find interested parties for those contracts, they may proceed with the trade as it stands. However, they would lack the necessary cap space (approximately $33 million) to propose a max contract to a free agent with seven to nine years of experience, such as Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, or Kemba Walker.
Of course, when talking about the Lakers’ cap space, we can’t forget that $5 million of it is being taken up (for each of the next three seasons) by the stretched contract of Luol Deng (who they signed in that disastrous summer of 2016). Should they not delay the trade or find takers for those three extra contracts, that $5 million is the difference between the space they need to sign one of the above players to the max and what they’ll actually have (about $28 million if they get Davis to waive his trade kicker, which he may not do anyway).
A new star combo
James and Davis seem to complement each other perfectly. James, being one of the NBA’s greatest ever playmakers, and Davis, as one of the league’s top finishers. Davis is one of the three players, with James being another, who have achieved more than 70 percent accuracy in over 2,000 attempts in the restricted area in the past five years.
Davis has been assisted on about two-thirds of his field goals over his career. James, meanwhile, ranks fourth with 8.8 assists per game over the last three seasons.
Davis differs from James’ usual offensive star teammates as he scores more from inside rather than from the perimeter. In the past three seasons, only 40 percent of James’ assists – a rate that ranks 59th among 106 players with a total of 500 assists – have been on shots within the restricted area. However, during the same period, James’ teammates have had a higher shooting percentage within the restricted area when he was on court (64.3 percent) compared to when he was off (61.4 percent).
Last season, Davis scored just 1.02 points per possession as a roll man, according to Synergy play-type tracking. That ranked 19th among 22 players who averaged at least three roll man possessions per game and was down from 1.18 (fourth among players with three per game) in 2017-18.
James ought to assist Davis in reaching his peak performance as a roll man. However, the role of a “roll man” includes pick-and-pop jumpers, and Davis’s shooting performance outside the paint has declined in the last two seasons (35.2 percent) compared to his earlier record in the preceding three seasons (41.1 percent).
He has somewhat compensated for that drop by improving his 3-point rate, but this season, he still made 1.6 times more mid-range shots than 3-pointers. Even though this was the lowest rate of his career, it was still the seventh highest among 218 players who made at least 200 shots from outside the paint. (Out of those 218 players, only 23 made more mid-range shots than 3-pointers.)
Davis’ effective field goal percentage from outside the paint (40.9 percent) ranked 209th among those 218 players. James’ (48.1 percent) ranked 137th. So, while one is an elite passer and both are elite finishers, they’re not a perfect fit in regard to scoring inside and out.
Shooters needed (and soon)
Wagner may continue to serve as a reserve player, but the Lakers’ roster depth after the trade only includes Davis, James and Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma’s effective field goal percentage for shots taken outside the paint is 44.5 percent, which places him 187th out of 218 players who have attempted at least 200 field goals. Despite having a strong and versatile frontline, the Lakers lack depth and have no backcourt. Reggie Bullock, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Lance Stephenson are all unrestricted free agents, none of whom seem likely to return.
Whether or not the Lakers can get rid of those three smaller contracts, they might be better off spreading their remaining cap space around (rather than using it on a third star). With James and Davis, they need to add as much shooting as possible. In James’ first season in L.A., the Lakers (33.6 percent) ranked last in catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage, with Kuzma having the third-worst mark (31.7 percent) among 101 players with at least 200 attempts.
The good news? Six of the top nine catch-and-shoot 3-point shooters (minimum 100 attempts) from last season are free agents. Additionally, 20 free agents this summer shot 40 percent or better on at least 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Four of those 20 are Irving, Leonard, Thompson and Kevin Durant, but the Lakers should find some realistic targets among the remaining 16.
| Player | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Curry | 79 | 167 | 47.3% | 78 | 157 | 49.7% | 70.7% |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 88 | 184 | 47.8% | 86 | 181 | 47.5% | 71.2% |
| Danny Green | 179 | 379 | 47.2% | 172 | 363 | 47.4% | 69.9% |
| Quinn Cook | 62 | 129 | 48.1% | 55 | 118 | 46.6% | 69.4% |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | 142 | 310 | 45.8% | 131 | 292 | 44.9% | 66.9% |
| Darren Collison | 61 | 138 | 44.2% | 51 | 116 | 44.0% | 62.7% |
| Danuel House Jr. | 57 | 133 | 42.9% | 56 | 132 | 42.4% | 63.9% |
| J.J. Redick | 181 | 424 | 42.7% | 151 | 356 | 42.4% | 60.5% |
| Ryan Arcidiacono | 69 | 164 | 42.1% | 68 | 162 | 42.0% | 62.8% |
| Mike Scott | 101 | 247 | 40.9% | 96 | 229 | 41.9% | 60.3% |
| Patrick Beverley | 86 | 211 | 40.8% | 86 | 210 | 41.0% | 61.1% |
| Nik Stauskas | 47 | 116 | 40.5% | 45 | 110 | 40.9% | 59.9% |
| Harrison Barnes | 146 | 366 | 39.9% | 140 | 347 | 40.3% | 59.0% |
| JaMychal Green | 87 | 205 | 42.4% | 64 | 159 | 40.3% | 58.0% |
| Wesley Matthews | 124 | 307 | 40.4% | 118 | 294 | 40.1% | 59.6% |
| Wilson Chandler | 56 | 144 | 38.9% | 56 | 140 | 40.0% | 58.3% |
| List does not include Kyrie Irving (45.4%), Kevin Durant (40.8%), Kawhi Leonard (40.8%) or Klay Thompson (40.5%). |
Another playmaker?
Last year’s strategy of putting playmakers (instead of shooters) around James didn’t work. The 2018-19 Lakers were the lowest ranked offensive team — they ranked 24th at 107.4 points scored per 100 possessions — that James has played for in his 16 seasons. (The 109.0 points per 100 possessions they scored in the 55 games that James played in would have ranked 19th, which would have been the second-lowest that any James team has ranked.)
This doesn’t imply that the Lakers for the next season can do without additional playmaking beyond James, who will be turning 35 this December. Lightening his offensive responsibilities could potentially enable him to devote more energy to defense.
If the Lakers are looking for both shooting and playmaking, the most interesting option would be D’Angelo Russell (whom the Lakers traded to the Brooklyn Nets two years ago). Russell shot 39.4 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season and also had the most assists (563) among free agents.
Russell is a restricted free agent, but if the Nets choose to upgrade to Irving (as has been widely reported) at point guard, they may let Russell walk. And he probably won’t command a maximum starting salary (about $27.3 million for a player with 0-6 years of experience).
Brogdon could serve as another dual-threat guard, however, he is a restricted free agent and it may be more difficult to lure him away from the Milwaukee Bucks. Potential unrestricted alternatives may include Patrick Beverley and Darren Collison.
Still need to get stops, too
Beverley, Brogdon or Collison would help make up for the loss of Ball on defense. The Lakers ranked a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency last season. But they were seventh (106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) at the time of Ball’s season-ending injury and ranked 22nd (112.4) thereafter. They allowed 102.7 per 100 with James and Ball on the floor together, but 107.9 per 100 with James on the floor without Ball. (He will now team with Jrue Holiday in what may be the league’s best defensive backcourt.)
Davis ranked low in high-volume rim protection rankings, with opponents shooting 63.9 percent at the rim when he was there to protect it. But with his length and athleticism, he should be able to make up for James’ defensive issues more than any guard.
In the previous season, Davis had an average of 1.69 steals and blocks for each personal foul, a decrease from 1.94 in the season before that. Despite the decrease, his rate was the highest among players who played a minimum of 1,000 minutes. Davis and Myles Turner of the Indiana Pacers were the only two players who played at least 1,000 minutes and had a higher number of blocks (135) than fouls (132).
Even with the potential acquisition of a point guard such as Beverley or Collison, the Lakers will still require perimeter defenders to guard against opposing star players. Last season, 17 free agents defended against the league’s top five wing scorers (James Harden, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Leonard) for a minimum of 150 total possessions.
- Al-Farouq Aminu
- Trevor Ariza
- Harrison Barnes
- Reggie Bullock
- Jimmy Butler
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Kevin Durant
- Dorian Finney-Smith (restricted)
- Danny Green
- Justin Holiday
- Wesley Matthews
- Khris Middleton
- Iman Shumpert
- Garrett Temple
- Klay Thompson
- * Noah Vonleh
- * Thaddeus Young
* Possessions defending Antetokounmpo account for more than 85 percent of their total.
Butler, Durant, Middleton, and Thompson are four players that the Lakers likely can’t afford. Bullock and Caldwell-Pope are free agents from the Lakers themselves. Barnes, Green, and Matthews are also part of the above mentioned catch-and-shoot list.
The trade market?
When it comes to completing their roster and utilizing their cap space, the Lakers are not only restricted to free agency. They also have the option to engage in trades beyond their agreement with New Orleans. However, due to the numerous draft picks and young players they are trading for Davis, their bargaining power with other teams for valuable players is somewhat limited.
Clearly, getting Davis was a significant move toward competition for the Lakers. However, the trade will present a challenging road for the Lakers to equip their two stars with a strong supporting team.
* * *
John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
