Wishing a joyful Saturday to all my unwell, wild, and unruly friends!
Numerous sports games are taking place today, but a few team totals from the highest-scoring teams in the league’s first five innings have tremendous value. Let’s delve into it!
Above all, avoid being rude, it’s Saturday!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
I have a record of 19-12-1 (+22.64u) since Monday.
This journey has been challenging to reach a week like this one. However, today we continue with the same vigor.
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Phillies Star, Kyle Schwarber, flips his bat after hitting a home run.
The Stank:
Let’s take advantage of some pitchers with the worst matchup ratings today.
Today, Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who has the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com, faces a daunting task. He has to contend with four elite-rated hitters from the Phillies, who also have an average hitter with an elite rating. This is particularly challenging given that Philadelphia is the best-scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.09 runs per game and 3.25 at home.
Munoz is posting a disgusting 5.80 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.40. He has allowed 15 runs in his last four outings. Allowing teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season. This season, the Marlins are allowing the third most runs to opponents in the first five innings with 3.06 runs per game.
The Phillies offense should have themselves a Saturday getting on top of every Munoz pitch they see. Over 2.5 (-120) GIVE ME IT!
Team Total: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
Coming into today’s matchup, Oakland Athletics starter Hogan Harris has the second-worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com. He will be going up against three elite hitters and the third-best overall graded team, which received a great rating. Harris is posting a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season —solid numbers for a pitcher who gives up so much hard contact. He has allowed teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season.
Among all the teams Harris has encountered this season, the Diamondbacks stand out as the most proficient early-scoring team. When playing at home this season, Arizona averages 3.29 runs per game. Overall, they rank fourth in scoring within the first five innings of the game, with an average just under 3.0 at 2.99 runs per game.
Back out in front. pic.twitter.com/xPBCWziFHi
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 29, 2024
The Diamondbacks’ lineup, featuring Randal Grichuk, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker, all recognized with top ratings on Batters-Box.com, is a formidable force. Despite a sluggish start in the last game, they’re expected to bounce back today and effortlessly score more than three runs.
Full Transparency: I also put a unit on the F5 total over 4.5 (+100) between the A’s and Diamondbacks, so take that information however you wish. Why? The Athletics have a decent enough matchup today to at least contribute to a few runs, but I think the safer play is the Diamondbacks team total in the first five innings. Plus, Oakland allows the most runs in the first five innings in baseball (3.10 per game).
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my preferred website for finding top matchup ratings for my daily Major League Baseball bets. While it may not be the ultimate solution, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering. Last season, I gained 98 units using Batters-Box.com. Doubtful? Verify it on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional stats, which assist me in determining whether a player merits my attention.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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