Happy Friday! We’re already over 70% done with the season and the playoffs are just around the corner in seven weeks. As we approach the weekend of Week 19, here are some noteworthy points…
1. Caruso magic
Typically, when you look at the plus-minus column in a box score, the numbers for backup players on the same team don’t differ significantly. These reserve players often play together for most of the game, and during this time, the team’s performance is either good, bad, or average.
But in the Lakers’ win over the Pelicans on Tuesday, we saw the following from four of L.A.’s six reserves…
- Kyle Kuzma: -19 in 12:17
- Rajon Rondo: -17 in 11:31
- Dwight Howard: +12 in 18:17
- Alex Caruso: +20 in 17:22
Kuzma and Caruso both came off the bench, but the only time they were on the floor together was the last 46 seconds of the game, when Lakers coach Frank Vogel took out his two All-Stars — LeBron James and Anthony Davis — with his team up 11. Caruso didn’t enter the game until the 8:48 mark of the second quarter.
Plus-minus for a single game can provide valuable insights about the game, but it shouldn’t be used to make decisions beyond that specific 48-minute span. Despite this, the fact that the Lakers are beating their rivals by over a point each minute when Caruso is playing isn’t entirely unusual.
Caruso ranks ninth on the Lakers and fifth among Laker guards in minutes per game (18.0), behind Rajon Rondo (20.8). But the best team in the West has been at its best with Caruso on the floor. In his 972 total minutes, the Lakers have outscored their opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions, the *third best on-court NetRtg mark among non-Bucks who have averaged at least 15 minutes in 30 games or more.
* Behind those of the Nuggets’ Paul Millsap (+14.0) and the Raptors’ Terence Davis (+12.3).
In 445 minutes with both James and Caruso on the floor, the Lakers have outscored their opponents by 24.7 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 719 combinations that have played at least 400 minutes together.
Caruso ranks 270th in usage rate (having used just 13.6% of the Lakers possessions while he’s been on the floor) among 319 players who have played at least 500 minutes. His 11.0 points and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes rank 276th and 102nd among that same group of 319 players.
But his impact is felt on the other end of the floor, where the Lakers have allowed less than a point per possession in his 972 minutes. His 2.1 steals and 4.0 deflections per 36 both rank 10th. At a key moment in that win over the Pelicans on Tuesday, Caruso blocked Lonzo Ball at the rim and then stole the ball from his former teammate two possessions later. The Pelicans, who rank fourth offensively since Christmas (114.9 points scored per 100 possessions), scored just 31 points on 42 possessions with Caruso on the floor.
It seems that Vogel hasn’t totally bought into Caruso’s plus-minus magic. The guard has averaged fewer minutes since Jan. 1 (15.4) than he did prior (20.0). No five-man lineup that includes Caruso has played more than 71 total minutes, and the two that have played more than 33 minutes also include Rondo.
But Vogel has, more often than not, had Caruso on the floor with the game on the line. Caruso has played 36.5% of his regulation (non-overtime) minutes in the fourth quarter, a rate which ranks *second among 267 players who have played at least 750 regulation minutes total. Some of that is garbage time, but Caruso ranks fourth on the team in clutch minutes. The Lakers have played 25 games that were within five points in the last five minutes, and he’s been on the floor down the stretch of 18 of those.
* The Pacers’ Doug McDermott is the player who has played the largest percentage of his regulation minutes (38.5%) in the fourth quarter. At the other end of the list, this season’s Carlos Boozer if you will, is the Clippers’ Ivica Zubac, who has played only 5.5% of his regulation minutes in the fourth quarter. The Lakers’ JaVale McGee (9.3%), Danny Green (14.3%) and Avery Bradley (14.7%) are third, seventh and ninth from the bottom.
The Lakers were unsuccessful in acquiring the playmaking guard they desired from the buyout market. However, they could benefit from allocating more playing time to a guard that is already part of their roster.
Their next opportunity to do so is Saturday, when the Lakers visit the Memphis Grizzlies (8 ET, League Pass). They’ll then play the Pelicans again in the second game of a back-to-back on Sunday (8 ET, ESPN).
2. Creativity in Houston
Regardless of whether they’re using a center or not, the Houston Rockets’ offense isn’t particularly intricate. The strategy is simple: spread the floor and let James Harden control the ball. In terms of player movement, the Rockets are ranked 30th, with their five players collectively covering an average of only 10.6 miles every 24 minutes they have possession. Moreover, very few plays are called throughout the game.
Keep a close eye on the Rockets as they emerge from a timeout or at the onset of a period, and you’ll witness innovative strategies from coach Mike D’Antoni. As per Synergy tracking, the Rockets are the most efficient team in the league after timeouts, scoring 1.06 points per possession.
They rank second offensively overall (114.0 points scored per 100 possessions), and there’s obviously a strong correlation between overall efficiency and after-timeout efficiency. But when you compare the two, the Rockets see the biggest jump in efficiency coming out of timeouts.
Note: Synergy tracks efficiency a little differently in that an offensive rebound starts a new “possession.”
And it’s not because they just give the ball to Harden and let him go to work. Sure, at times, they will run a standard action to let Harden do just that. Here’s the Rockets’ first play of the third quarter against Boston earlier this month, where Harden feigns like he’s not part of the play before darting off a cross-screen from P.J. Tucker. He attacks the close-out of Jaylen Brown and gets Tucker a layup.
Even that play is a non-standard way of getting the ball in the hands of the league’s leading scorer. And D’Antoni has some more tricks up his sleeve to get other guys good shots. There’s some fun (though not that complicated) stuff in his out-of-timeout playbook.
In this space in early December, we looked at “point single weak,” a play the Rockets have run over the last few years to get P.J. Tucker a corner 3. In January, they unveiled a simple “elevator doors” variation for Ben McLemore…
My new favorite Rockets play. pic.twitter.com/wlEwzx3VAW
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) January 15, 2020
Here are a few more creations by D’Antoni from the last month…
- Danuel House Jr. steps in to set a screen for James Harden. Both defenders are focused on the league’s top scorer, which allows House to slip to the rim for a slam dunk. Clearly, this was the intended play all along, as Covington’s attention never strays from House.
- Russell Westbrook maneuvers into a one-on-one situation against Anthony Davis, as Thabo Sefolosha establishes a back-screen for Covington, positioning him for a corner three-pointer.
- Westbrook attacks the basket after curling off a double cross-screen, as Covington moves down to the corner on the weak-side.
- Austin Rivers weaves between two pin-down screens, before setting a back-screen for Jeff Green.
* Not all of these are necessarily new this season (the Rivers back-screen is a familiar one) and it’s always possible that any of them have been “borrowed” from other coaches.
Playing without a center presumably allows D’Antoni to be more creative. The Rockets are 9-2 since they last played with a center, ranking third offensively and 10th defensively over that stretch.
Their current five-game winning streak began with a win over the Boston Celtics, who the Rockets will visit on Saturday (8:30 ET, ABC).
3. More ATO Goodies
The Washington Wizards have fallen to 13th in offensive efficiency after ranking in the top five through early January. But they’re second in after-timeout efficiency at 1.02 points per possession, according to Synergy.
The Wizards also have an elevator doors play. And here’s a fun, multi-action set they ran against Memphis earlier this month…
A Davis Bertans back-screen for Bradley Beal, who are the Wizards’ two most dangerous shooters, seems to be the move that will give the Wizards an edge, especially after the first four passes. However, Troy Brown doesn’t really focus on finding Beal as he maneuvers off the screen. Instead, he sends the ball back to the right side of the court where Beal is sprinting off a pin-down screen from Mo Wagner. Both defenders gravitate towards Beal, leaving Wagner open. Beal locates Wagner beneath the basket and delivers the seventh pass of the game.
The Atlanta Hawks rank 11th in after-timeout efficiency, but that’s a big difference from where they rank overall offensively (25th). The Hawks generally don’t go out of the box out of timeouts, mostly relying on the pick-and-roll playmaking of Trae Young. He got DeAndre Hunter an open look for a game-tying 3 against the Heat last week by driving past Bam Adebayo’s attempt at a switch.
The Hawks will also provide Kevin Huerter with some chances to execute plays. He will primarily attack the center of the floor, usually with the ball in his right hand, following timeouts.
The Spain pick-and-roll is a play that a lot of teams run, and the Hawks will use it to get Young, Huerter and John Collins all involved in the same action. They got an open 3 for Huerter with it against the Celtics earlier this month…
As Huerter sets a back-screen on Enes Kanter, Jayson Tatum stays in the lane to assist on Young’s drive. Huerter subsequently emerges for the open 3.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank third in both overall efficiency and after-timeout efficiency. Early last season, we looked at three different options off a baseline cross-screen set for Giannis Antetokounmpo that they still run. And here was a sideline out of bounds play that worked for them a couple of times in their win in Toronto on Tuesday…
This is just perfect execution of a simple SLOB play. Good screen from Middleton forces switch & then he holds the seal. pic.twitter.com/308hcbxkbw
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) February 26, 2020
4. Jimmy Butler struggling in the clutch
Jimmy Butler got blocked by three Timberwolves at once on his attempt at a game-winning drive in the final seconds on Wednesday. Two possessions prior to that, Butler missed a short turnaround bank shot for the lead with 30 seconds on the clock.
Butler has now taken 15 shots for the tie or the lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in his first season with the Heat. He tied the Heat’s game against the Hawks on Dec. 10 with a 3-pointer with 29.8 seconds left in regulation, but he’s missed the other 14 of those shots. With the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime, Butler is 17-for-54 (31.5%), the worst mark among 20 players with at least 50 clutch field goal attempts.
A year ago, Butler made two (almost identical) game-winning 3s (one, two) in his first two weeks with the Sixers. He finished last season 6-for-8 on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute of the fourth or OT, with the last of those being the fast break bucket that preceded Kawhi Leonard’s Game 7 buzzer-beater.
Last season, he was crucial during crucial moments. However, this season has seen a decline in his performance in high-pressure situations. In terms of his career, Butler has a 35.2% success rate – 30 successful shots out of 85 – when the game is on the line in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime. This is higher than the average league performance of 32.7% in such situations over the span of his nine-year career.
Butler’s next chance at a game-winner could come this weekend. The Heat, who have lost seven of their last nine games and are in danger of losing a top-four seed in the East, host the Mavs on Friday (8 ET, League Pass) and the Nets on Saturday (7:30 ET, League Pass). The highlight of their five-game homestand is a matchup with the Bucks on Monday (7:30 ET, NBA TV).
The last minute has been Dame Time.
Zach LaVine and Butler are tied for the most attempts to tie or take the lead in the last minute of the fourth quarter or overtime. However, out of his 15 attempts, LaVine has only made three, which places him in a tie for tenth for the most successful shots in that scenario.
In the same category as Butler (clutch last season, not clutch this season) is Luka Doncic. The birthday boy was 6-for-11 on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute last season, but is 0-for-6 this season.
Here are the nine players who have scored more than three baskets to either tie the game or take the lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime…
| Player | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | 0 | 0 | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Derrick Rose | 6 | 13 | 46.2% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| Devonte’ Graham | 5 | 10 | 50.0% | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Chris Paul | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Buddy Hield | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| Through Feb. 27, 2020 |
So Damian Lillard leads the league with seven, and he’d have one more if the referees correctly called goaltending on his drive for the tie in Utah earlier this month.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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