We’ve reached that part of the season. You know which one. The calendar has flipped to October. We have byes, trips to London and coaches being let go. We’ve got practice windows opening and seasons closing.
By now, you’ve got a good idea of how your fantasy squads look. You know whether you’re playing for a playoff spot or just playing a spoiler role. Either way, it’s far too soon in the season to give up. Most anything can happen. It just takes a few shrewd moves … and a little bit of luck.
Welcome back to the Sleepers column, where we combine erudite discussion with good ol’ dumb luck. What comes next is a group of players who could help you outperform your expectations … or have fun trying. Time to turn things around.
Here are some names for Week 6.
QUARTERBACK
The rookie quarterbacks are coming into their own. Jayden Daniels has already become a bona fide star. Bo Nix is starting to get hot. Now it looks like Caleb Williams is coming to life. The top overall pick posted his best fantasy stat line of his young career in Week 5. And before you say, “Yeah, but … Panthers,” it’s worth noting that Williams has gone over 300 yards twice in the past three weeks. He also has multiple touchdown passes in two of his last three contests.
This week, Williams and the Bears take a trip across the Atlantic to meet up with the Jaguars. Jacksonville continues to be one of the best matchups across the board for fantasy managers. Over the past three weeks, the Jags have been carved up for 994 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. With the Bears’ passing game rounding into shape, the rookie should find his way into a lot of fantasy lineups.
Full disclosure: Whenever I put Danny Dimes in this space, I have to take a deep breath and affirm to myself that I’m really doing this. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s make the case for Mr. Jones. He’s had two TD passes and no interceptions in three of his five games this season. Jones has also topped 230 passing yards in three straight games — which is no small feat in a year when passing numbers are down across the board. Most impressive is Jones lighting up the Seahawks in Week 5 without Malik Nabers.
Now we’re on to Cincinnati. Or rather, Cincinnati is coming to MetLife Stadium. Regardless of the location, the Bengals have had a few tough weeks trying to stop the pass. In their past three games, they’ve allowed 271 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and one interception. It was nice to see Jones find success last weekend without his stud rookie receiver. If Nabers can clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game, there’s even more reason for optimism. (EDITOR’S UPDATE: Giants coach Brian Daboll announced on Friday that Malik Nabers will miss a second straight game.)
Am I really doing this? Yes. Yes, I am. Levis has been a fount of unintentional comedy this season, but I have seen glimmers of hope. His Week 3 performance against the Packers was encouraging. He went for 260 yards with a pair of touchdowns. He did throw two interceptions, but if you’re starting Levis, you have to factor in a turnover or two. It’s just part of the deal. However, we know that Levis isn’t afraid to take shots downfield.
No team has allowed more yards on deep throws than the Colts — 433 yards to be exact, per Next Gen Stats. With Tennessee having a bye in Week 5, it hopefully gave the Titans some time to work out the kinks in their passing game. The deep connection between Levis and Calvin Ridley has been sketchy at best (1 for 6, 40 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Levis was much better on deep shots last year — but it only takes one big play to change things. Now, it’s worth noting that Levis is still battling a shoulder injury he suffered two weeks ago, with the second-year passer saying Wednesday he’s “fighting like hell” to play against the Colts. Assuming he’s good to go, starting him still won’t be for everyone. But if you’re in a league with 14 or more teams, he has low-end QB1 vibes this week.
RUNNING BACK
I’m old enough to remember when Breece Hall was presumed to be a better first-round pick than Bijan Robinson because Hall had less competition for backfield touches. That turned out to be wrong. To the surprise of no one, Robinson is dealing with Tyler Allgeier. To the surprise of many, Hall is dealing with Braelon Allen nipping at his heels. The fourth-round rookie has played at least 30 percent of the snaps in three of the last four games and has been reasonably effective with his opportunities.
This week, a frustrated Jets offense faces a vulnerable Bills run defense. Buffalo has allowed a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry and has struggled mightily against pass-catching backs. Allen won’t have the same target share as Hall, but he should find his way in a couple of opportunities. For managers in deep leagues, the rookie should have flex appeal this week.
If we’re talking about Braelon Allen, then we should give Tyler Allgeier some love as well. He was the original “fly in the ointment” in our preseason discussions. His usage so far tracks with what we saw last season and in the right matchups, as he’s had standalone value — even with minimal touches.
This week is one of the matchups where Allgeier could produce for fantasy managers in deep leagues. Carolina’s bottom-10 run defense has been fodder for opposing offenses all season. Last week, Roschon Johnson scored a pair of touchdowns in a limited role for the Bears. Overall, seven different rushers have posted top-20 weekly finishes against the Panthers. If Week 5 was the first big step in Atlanta’s offense getting off the ground, Allgeier could be a nice flex option in Week 6.
WIDE RECEIVER
It appears that we’ve found the answer to: Who is Dallas’ WR2? Tolbert was starting his takeover of the role even before Brandin Cooks (knee) went on injured reserve. Since then, the third-year receiver has only asserted himself even more. He’s second on the team in receiving yards and has scored double-digit PPR points in three of the last four games. He’s in an offense that throws the ball more than nearly any other squad. He’s rarely off the field (78 percent snaps) and trails only CeeDee Lamb in routes run.
It’s the volume that could carry the day for Tolbert in Week 6. On paper, the Lions aren’t the most favorable matchup. Although teams are attempting and completing a lot of passes against Detroit this season, Dan Campbell’s crew has done a good job of keeping opposing receivers out of the end zone. Detroit has allowed just three touchdowns to the position. That could lower Tolbert’s ceiling, but his ability to earn targets in a pass-heavy offense while playing in a potentially high-scoring game should raise his floor.
We’ve come to grips with Darnell Mooney being a big part of the Falcons passing game. It’s now time to have a conversation about Ray-Ray McCloud. He’s part of the trio that has outdone Kyle Pitts in targets, receptions and yards so far. He’s third on the team in routes run and is on the field for 90 percent of Atlanta’s offensive snaps. It’s safe to say that McCloud has a steady role in the offense.
Can I interest you in a matchup against the Carolina Panthers? Whether by land or by air, the Panthers haven’t offered much resistance in 2024. Carolina ranks 22nd against the pass. Over the past four weeks, it has been the 26th-ranked defense versus fantasy receivers. That happens when you’ve allowed seven receiving touchdowns to the position (tied for most in the NFL). With Kirk Cousins spreading the ball around and the Falcons looking like their getting into gear, McCloud has deeper league flex appeal.
TIGHT END
I’m not going to pretend that Ertz has been a fantasy stud this year. But the veteran has been no worse than any of his tight end brethren. In fact, he’s outscored Sam LaPorta, Dalton Schultz and Mark Andrews, to name a few. Even if the yardage totals haven’t been great, Ertz’s usage is reason to have hope … or at least not to despair. He leads Washington’s tight ends in snaps. Nope, it’s still not Ben Sinnott SZN. Ertz is second to Terry McLaurin in routes, targets, receptions and receiving yards. He’s rarely involved in any Jayden Daniels highlights, but with seven first downs among his 19 catches, he’s helping to keep the offense moving.
This week, Ertz and the Commanders visit Baltimore. Most fantasy managers are right to be concerned about starting their players versus the Ravens. Tight end might be the exception. John Harbaugh’s team has allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to the position this year. The only thing Baltimore hasn’t done is allow a touchdown. If Ertz can find the painted area, it raises the ceiling. More importantly, the potential volume this week should stabilize his sometimes-shaky floor.
DEFENSE
When I started compiling the list for this week’s column, the Texans defense was a lock to make it in. After all, it gets to face a Patriots offense that has gained the fourth-fewest yards and scored the second-fewest points in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett epitomized “game manager” at his best … and 2024 has been far from his best.
Now comes word that New England is changing course and will give No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye his NFL debut in Week 6. Maye’s preseason was positive overall, which has led some observers to feel frustrated over Jerod Mayo’s reluctance to name the rookie QB1. Well, after the Patriots were held to less than 14 points for the third straight week, Mayo’s stance has changed. Now New England faces the same Texans defense that sacked Caleb Williams seven times and forced a pair of interceptions in Week 2. Who knows what to expect from Maye in his first regular-season start? If I’m streaming a defense, I’ll take my chances going against a rookie stepping into a live professional game for the first time.
I’m of two minds about the quarterback situation in Cleveland. If I have Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy or David Njoku, I’m waiting for Kevin Stefanski to pull the plug on Deshaun Watson. On the other hand, if I’m looking to stream a defense, I want Watson to stay in the gig as long as possible. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Watson has the lowest yards per attempt (4.8) and has taken the most sacks (26). That’s a recipe for fantasy D/ST success.
The good news (based on perspective) is that Stefanski said immediately after the Week 5 loss that the Browns are “not changing quarterbacks.” That means managers looking to start a fill-in defense have an offense to target. Philly’s defense hasn’t been formidable this year, with just six sacks and a pair of interceptions. But in this matchup of Stoppable Force vs. Moveable Object, I’m willing to take the chance on the defense.
