Week 6 NFL picks: Bills or Jets on 'Monday Night Football'?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 6 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on BYE: Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
2. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 10 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, OCT. 14

Why Gennaro picked the Jets: Why do teams change head coaches in the middle of a season? Specific reasons obviously vary, but the general hope is that a serious shock to the system provides an IMMEDIATE boost. Jets owner Woody Johnson plainly stated as much after firing Robert Saleh on Tuesday: “The change that we made today, that I made, I believe will bring new energy and positivity that will lead to more wins, starting now.”

In the business of sports prognostication, this promptly cultivates discussion of “the dead coach bounce,” a purported phenomenon that draws its macabre name from the dead cat bounce. But does that investing term actually apply to the gridiron? Do in-season coaching changes rally NFL teams? Well, I did some back-of-the-envelope research, narrowing the scope of my investigation to serve this particular blurb. My findings: When it comes to the game immediately following the firing, recent history says … YES!

Over the past decade, we’ve seen 23 midseason head-coaching changes. The interim’s record in his debut: 12-11! That’s quite a mark when you remember that teams taking this drastic measure are significantly flawed. The most recent franchise to win the interim’s first game? The 2023 Raiders, who responded to Josh McDaniels’ firing with a 30-6 win over the Giants in Antonio Pierce’s debut. Can Jeff Ulbrich follow suit in his first game as the Jets’ head man? I’ll play the trend!

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Why Gennaro picked the Ravens: Dan Quinn doesn’t want to compare Jayden Daniels to Lamar Jackson … but the rest of us do! That’s why we can’t wait to watch this intoxicating DMV duel.

Fresh off his second MVP season, Jackson’s on an early pace to eclipse 4,100 yards passing and 1,200 rushing. Meanwhile, Daniels has abruptly taken the league by storm. The No. 2 overall pick’s destroying professional defenses via arm (NFL-best 77.1% completion rate) and legs (60 rushing ypg). With all due respect to the surprising start in Minnesota, Washington’s 4-1 record is the most shocking come-up of this young season. But here I am raining on the Commanders’ parade with this pick. Why? Well, I’m leaning into another early development of the 2024 campaign: The ground game’s return to prominence.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing offense (211.2 ypg) and rushing defense (60.4 ypg). The Commanders have proven quite capable of pounding the rock, ranking second at 178.4 ground yards per game, but can they stop a pounding? The early returns aren’t promising, with Quinn’s defense yielding 5.1 yards per carry, the second-worst mark in the league. To be fair, some advanced statistics are more favorable to Washington’s run D, but I still don’t trust this unit to slow down the prolific pairing of Lamar and Derrick Henry.

Why Ali picked the Packers: Do you know which quarterback has the lowest passer rating against pressure this season? I didn’t. I legitimately did a double take when my Next Gen Stats search showed Jordan Love and his 23.3 mark at the bottom of a list 34 QBs deep. I knew he had made some blunders this season — last week’s disastrous pick-six a fresh example — but I was not aware just how poorly things have gone for the Packers passer when defenders have closed in. Love, still only one month removed from spraining his MCL, has been particularly bad against the blitz, posting the second-worst EPA per dropback, third-worst passer rating and fourth-worst CPOE in the league (min. 75 attempts). Now, can you guess who’s been blitzed at the highest rate this season? Ah, you’re catching on.

So if we know how to attack Love right now, surely the Cardinals’ coaching staff does, too. Unfortunately for the desert dwellers, Love’s biggest weakness at the moment is also their own: Arizona’s defense has generated the lowest pressure rate of any team off the blitz (23.4%) this year, and the second-lowest pressure rate overall (25.3%). If the Cardinals can’t figure out a way to get in Love’s face on Sunday, he should be able to hit his talented pass catchers in stride for big gains and multiple scores. And with a defense that thrives on takeaways (NFL-high 14 entering Week 6), plus a home-field advantage that tops the league since Matt LaFleur’s arrival in 2019 (.767 win percentage), I fear Kyler Murray and Co. will only be able to keep pace for so long at Lambeau.

Why Dan picked the Texans: Welcome to the NFL, Drake Maye! The third overall pick of this past April’s draft will make his first career start on Sunday, and he gets a doozy of an assignment for his introduction to the league. All he’s being asked to do is find a way to win against a Texans defense that ranks first in opponent completion percentage (51.7%; would be the lowest allowed in a season since the 2010 Jets) and first in QB pressure rate (42%). Oh, and the rookie signal-caller will be protected by arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Maye’s predecessor, Jacoby Brissett, was pressured on a league-high 50 percent of his dropbacks through Week 5. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are undoubtedly ready to wreak havoc. Now, the Texans will be without the league’s leading receiver, Nico Collins, and their offensive line is badly beaten up right now. So, opportunities should be there for the New England defense. The lopsidedness of the matchup in favor of Houston when its defense is on the field is probably going to be too much for Maye to overcome, though, even if he does provide a spark for a moribund offense.

Why Brooke picked the Buccaneers: This tilt took a hit when we learned Saints quarterback Derek Carr will miss several weeks with an oblique injury. Rookie Spencer Rattler will get the start — marking the seventh different starting QB for the team since Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season — and must work behind an injury-ravaged O-line. Seeing how the fifth-round pick has yet to take a regular-season snap in the NFL, New Orleans presumably will lean heavily on Alvin Kamara, but can he do enough to keep the Saints competitive with the Buccaneers’ top-10 scoring offense? Plus, New Orleans’ defense hasn’t been great, allowing 411.7 yards per game over the last three weeks. All of this bodes well for Baker Mayfield, who ranks in the top five in completion percentage (71.9, fourth), TD-to-INT ratio (11:2, fifth), passer rating (112.2, third) and total touchdowns (13, first). One aspect of this matchup that’s always interesting: the Mike Evans–Marshon Lattimore battle on the outside. Lattimore has historically won this heated duel, yet even if Evans (or Chris Godwin) is taken away on any given play, the Bucs have other offensive options. Tampa’s run game has come to life of late behind Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving.

The bottom line is New Orleans appears to be headed in the wrong direction after its hot start, scoring fewer than 25 points in each of the last three games after combining for 91 in Weeks 1 and 2 (both wins). And with Carr out, I just don’t see the Saints going toe-to-toe with Mayfield and Co.

Why Ali picked the Eagles: Cleveland entered Week 5 generating a measly 3.9 yards per play — the lowest average in the league. Surely a meeting with Washington, which was allowing a whopping 6.2 yards per play at the time (second-most), would kick Kevin Stefanski’s group into gear. Yeah … not quite. The Browns’ abysmal showing last Sunday actually dropped their ypp average to 3.8. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ mark improved by half a yard (5.7), lifting them up five spots in the rankings. Cleveland went 1-for-13 on third-down attempts against Dan Quinn’s defense, which entered the matchup allowing an NFL-worst 54.8 percent conversion rate (now down to 43.6%, if you were wondering).

From historically poor QB play, to drops, to penalties, to injuries, to miscommunications — it’s abundantly clear through five games that there’s no easy fix for all of Cleveland’s problems. While Philadelphia’s offense has plenty to work on itself, that unit at least had the bye week to implement some solutions and, most importantly, get healthy. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson, each sidelined for the Eagles’ 17-point loss to the Bucs in Week 4, are expected to be back in uniform on Sunday.

We’ve seen several surprising upsets already this season, but the Browns winning at the Linc this weekend would definitely take the cake.

Why Gennaro picked the Titans: With quarterback questions on both sides and injuries ravaging Indy’s defense, the most trustworthy unit in this game — by far — is Tennessee’s D. Under first-year coordinator Dennard Wilson, the Titans are first in total defense … and 15th in scoring defense. Why the discrepancy between those two rankings? Well, Tennessee’s official mark in scoring D — 22.5 ppg allowed — carries three touchdowns that were not yielded by the defense (two Will Levis pick-sixes and a blocked-punt TD). Remove those from the equation, and the Titans are giving up 17.3 ppg, a far more palatable figure. One area that does leave something to be desired, though: takeaways. Tennessee has just two, tied for dead last in the NFL. Now, I don’t want to take away from the top takeaway teams, because there is indeed a “make your own luck” aspect to creating turnovers in bulk, but flukiness is an undeniable ingredient in the possession-stealing stew. And given the way this defense has been playing, the Titans are due for the oblong ball to haphazardly bounce their way. Tennessee doubles its season total with a pair of takeaways on Sunday to grind out a divisional win at home.

Why Tom picked the Chargers: Because it would not be in the spirit of this exercise to predict a 12-12 tie. I am tempted by Denver’s defensive dominance to take the Broncos, who have won three straight by holding their opponents to 11.3 points and 267 yards per game (the lowest and third-lowest marks in the NFL, respectively, in that span). Top Chargers target Ladd McConkey might not see much of Patrick Surtain II, who has lined up on the outside for most of this season, but that’s little consolation against a Broncos team that has allowed the third-lowest passer rating in the NFL (73.7) on throws to receivers in the slot. Of course, Los Angeles’ defense has been stingy in its own right, ranking first in points allowed per game (12.5) and fifth in yards allowed per game (282.5). The Bolts are also one of six teams to allow fewer than 100 rushing yards on average (94.0, sixth in the NFL), which means Denver’s 28th-ranked passing attack could be asked to do more than it is capable of. If this comes down to one side piecing together enough timely offense, I like Justin Herbert‘s chances better than Bo Nix‘s.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: Pittsburgh has become a tough watch after beginning the season 3-0. Of the 15 teams above .500 entering Week 6, the Steelers are averaging the fewest points per game (18.4). Despite Justin Fields having the best throwing season of his career so far, the big plays between him and his pass catchers are few and far between, and the rushing attack has been too stagnant without Jaylen Warren pairing with Najee Harris. That’s not to say the Raiders are much better offensively, ranking in the bottom 10 in scoring, total and rushing offense, and turnovers have been an issue. The fact that Davante Adams won’t be suiting up after requesting a trade certainly doesn’t help matters for Aidan O’Connell, who’s getting his first start of the season Sunday. Will he really improve this unit? (I mean, there is a reason he lost the starting job over the offseason to a journeyman.) Raiders QBs, O’Connell included, have collectively struggled when the stud receiver isn’t on the field this season.

• With Adams: 73.4 completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt, 94.3 passer rating.
• Without Adams: 60.3 completion percentage, 6.3 yards per attempt, 64.1 passer rating.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention T.J. Watt and Maxx Crosby, two annual Defensive Player of the Year contenders. I see both adding to their sack totals on Sunday, but neither defense has played up to snuff of late. That said, Pittsburgh’s unit is talented enough to squeeze the life out of its opponent (as it did in Weeks 1-3). And with winnable tilts leading up to its bye week (at Vegas, then home games vs. Jets and Giants), the Steelers will be extra motivated to bounce back from two down performances.

Why Dan picked the Falcons: Atlanta has yet to win comfortably this season. In fact, all five of the team’s games have gone down to the wire. But the Panthers offer as good a chance as the Falcons have had thus far to get away from the high drama, at least for an hour or two. Will they be able to take advantage of it? Neither of these teams are able to provide much when it comes to rushing the passer — they both rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks. In fact, the Falcons rank dead last in both categories. Andy Dalton has already shown this season that he’s still capable of carving up a defense, and failing to put much heat on him is a good way to get the Red Rifle warmed up. I wouldn’t count Carolina out by any means, but the Falcons have the better playmakers and had a mini-bye to get ready for this one. Atlanta should be better-equipped to take advantage of the opportunities a pressure-challenged defense provides.

Why Ali picked the Lions: Dallas’ defense fared better than most expected this past Sunday night, stymying the Steelers’ offense without Pro Bowlers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Perhaps even more surprising, though, was that the Cowboys amassed a season-high 109 rush yards (on 31 carries) against what had been the league’s third-ranked rush defense. Can they find similar success this Sunday against the NFL’s fourth-ranked unit? Will the scoreboard allow them to stay as committed? Unlike the Justin Fields-led outfit in Pittsburgh, Detroit’s offensive attack is versatile, explosive, consistent and packed with playmakers at every position. The Lions are one of just three teams to have produced at least 350 yards in each of their games this season (along with the Ravens and 49ers), a mark the Steelers have topped only once this year. So, yeah, the Cowboys will be trying to wrangle an entirely different beast this weekend. One that’s tougher, faster and more experienced than the group that was throttled in Dallas nearly two years ago, also after its bye. Dan Campbell’s too locked in to leave Texas with anything but a W this time around.

Why Tom picked the Bengals: Joe Burrow and Co. have generated offense at a merciless pace lately, putting up imposing per-game marks (28 points, fourth-most in the NFL, and 359 yards, 10th-most) that look even better when the strange Week 1 loss to the Patriots is excised from the data pool. (Between Weeks 2 and 5, they averaged 32.5 points, second-most in that span, and 392.8 yards, sixth-most.) The problem is, Burrow and Co. have finished ahead of the other team just once so far this season — but surely it will happen again sometime. The Giants did throw cold water on the similarly high-flying Seahawks offense last week, and I worry a little that they’ll be able to work similar magic, though they’ll be without key pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who had wrist surgery this week. My bigger worry is that Daniel Jones will enjoy himself as much as everyone else has against the Bengals’ barely-there defense. Perhaps the smarter play is to pick against Cincy’s D unless given a compelling reason to do otherwise. If this comes down to an offensive skills competition, though, I like Burrow to finally break through for another win.

LONDON GAME

Why Brooke picked the Bears: The Jaguars travel across the pond for back-to-back games after getting their first win of the season in Week 5. If they prevail in each of their next two contests, they will have as many victories in London (four) as they do in Jacksonville since the start of the 2023 season. That’s clearly no guarantee with the way the Jags have played for the majority 2024 and considering their opponent this week. Yes, Trevor Lawrence found Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk in big spots last Sunday, but this is an offense that’s been out of sorts for most of the season, putting some major heat on Doug Pederson and his staff. Now Jacksonville’s tasked with overcoming a ferocious Bears defense that is allowing just 17 points per game (tied for fifth in the NFL). Pair that unit with a rookie quarterback who’s developing in front of our eyes, and the Jags are staring at a steep climb. Chicago’s Caleb Williams has impressed over the last two weeks, completing 71.2 percent of his throws for three TDs (against zero INTs) and a 117.5 passer rating. He’s looking more comfortable when under pressure and he’s finding his elite playmakers more regularly (SEE: the Williams-D.J. Moore connection in Week 5). There’s a real possibility Williams takes another step forward against Jacksonville’s last-ranked pass defense.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Dan picked the 49ers: Both teams should be angry, coming off embarrassing losses at home. The sense of urgency should be a bit higher on the 49ers sideline, though, with the team — still widely considered a top Super Bowl contender — staring at the prospect of opening the season at 2-4 with an 0-3 record against division opponents. I’m putting my trust in Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy that they will not let that happen, even though they keep blowing double-digit fourth quarter leads. Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald had their number in 2023 as defensive coordinator of the Ravens, who trounced the 49ers 33-19 last Christmas. I don’t see Macdonald replicating that effort with his current defense. Seattle has allowed a 141.8 passer rating in its last two games (losses to the Lions and Giants). That is the highest opponent passer rating versus the Seahawks in any two-game span in franchise history, per NFL Research. At minimum, Macdonald will be without three defensive starters on Thursday night, and when you pair that with the state of Seattle’s offensive line right now, I don’t love this matchup for the Seahawks.

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