Happy Hump Day!
After a rough evening, it’s time for a bounce-back with four games on the schedule. We have plenty of matchups and situations to consider. Today, I’ll focus on the teams and players who need to step up—it’s make-or-break time for their seasons. Let’s dive in!
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Tuesday’s write up went 1-1
2024 MLB Season: +13.82 Units
Phillies F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-150)
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Can these two studs save the Phillies season?
This play burned us yesterday, but we’re going back to it: Phillies first five innings team total over 1.5. In a must-win situation against a poorly rated pitcher, it’s a must. Don’t be afraid to pay the juice. Let’s dive in.
The Phillies come into today with three elite-rated hitters, zero poorly rated, and none above the league strikeout rate. They’ll face Mets starter José Quintana, who they just saw a month ago—and got shelled. The Phillies offense was shut down, scoring no runs on three hits across the seven innings Quintana pitched. I love this revenge spot.
The 35-year-old left-hander holds the worst pitcher rating on today’s slate, allowing 42.68% hard contact to opposing hitters. He also has the worst average hitter matchup rating in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. The only decent stat on his side is ground ball rate.
Quintana has allowed two runs in 18 of his 31 starts this season. However, he’s been dialed in lately, giving up just two runs over his last five starts (31.0 innings pitched), which suggests he’s due for some regression.
With the Phillies’ offense getting dominated yesterday, scoring only two runs on five hits, they need to bounce back today—or their season is over.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
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We are turning to one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, though he has been a bit sluggish lately, going 1-for-8 with four strikeouts over the past two games. The obvious NL MVP had such an off night that I nearly forgot he even recorded a hit yesterday. Despite the slump, I still love this spot for Ohtani.
The Dodgers’ designated hitter holds the top elite rating for both the current season and default settings, according to Batters-Box.com. He faces Padres starter Dylan Cease tonight, against whom he’s 5-for-17 lifetime, with four extra-base hits, three of which were home runs.
This Shohei Ohtani fly ball would have been a home run in 37 of 42 ballparks pic.twitter.com/BPRt7spDNF
— Statfax (@statfax) October 9, 2024
Ohtani’s elite trends are hard to ignore. Over the past three seasons, when carrying an elite rating, he records at least one hit 75% of the time, exceeds 1.5 bases 60% of the time, and goes deep in 33.56% of those games—a sample size of 146 elite ratings. In his last 10 elite-rated games, he’s surpassed 1.5 bases seven times.
With the Dodgers in a must-win situation, they need Ohtani to step up tonight. As always, I’ll take Ohtani’s bases at plus money—just like when he racked up 17 total bases a few weeks ago. Never be afraid to back him.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+350)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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