Damian Lillard has totaled over 40 Yahoo fantasy points in eight of his last nine games.
After a relatively modest five-game Tuesday, the NBA roars back with a typically robust mid-week ledger that features several games with particularly elevated totals which could make or break the slate from a DFS perspective.
As customary, we’ll highlight multiple advantageous positional matchups to exploit at each position for your Yahoo Fantasy lineups, as well as a good trio of candidates that may be best to steer clear of due to a combination of circumstances/salary.
Guards
Damian Lillard, MIL vs. IND ($40): The Bucks-Pacers clash has an absurd 258.5-point projected total, implying that we should certainly try to get in as many of the major pieces from either side into our lineups as is feasible. However, with Tyrese Haliburton appropriately carrying a position-high $48 salary, Lillard makes for a nice cost-savings pivot in the same game that can also provide an elite return. The multi-time All-Star put up 45.9 Yahoo points over 42 minutes in this same matchup two games ago, and he’s been over 40 Yahoo points in eight of his last nine contests overall. The Pacers are also allowing 37.1% 3-point shooting to point guards, and Lillard is shooting an outstanding 40% from distance in the last 13 games.
CJ McCollum, NOP at WAS ($27): McCollum could prove to be one of the better fantasy-point-per-dollar plays of the slate by the time all’s said and done, as the veteran has been overdelivering on his current salary with regularity recently and is in a very appealing matchup. The Wizards are playing at the league’s second-fastest pace (106.8 possessions per game) and have surrendered an NBA-high 32.1 offensive efficiency rating to point guards, along with 39.4% 3-point shooting to the position. Meanwhile, McCollum is averaging 39.3 Yahoo points per game and has been at 38.2 or more in six of his 11 games, outstanding returns for his current salary.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jalen Brunson, NYK at UTA ($34)
Guard to Avoid
D’Angelo Russell, LAL at SAN ($26): Russell is naturally capable of rising up on any given night and surprising us with a highly productive performance, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict when that will happen. There’s been more of a feast-or-famine quality to Russell’s game thus far in Los Angeles as compared to his time in previous stops, and accordingly, he comes in having scored 16.7 to 18.1 Yahoo points in his last three games. While the Spurs are a good matchup for point guards, Russell carries too much risk of a dud or underwhelming game at his salary.
Forwards
Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. ATL ($37): Barnes has been a prolific multi-category fantasy producer throughout the season and checks in averaging 45.5 Yahoo points per game, making him a very strong value candidate at his salary as well. The versatile forward actually has two tallies of over 60 Yahoo points in his last four games alone, and as his average indicates, he’s more or less made 40 Yahoo points his floor thus far. The Hawks are also one of the league’s fastest-paced teams and have allowed 49.2% shooting to small forwards, along with 42.9 Yahoo points per contest to the position.
RJ Barrett, NYK at UTA ($19): Barrett has proven capable of blowing past his current salary on multiple occasions, with his season average of 28.5 Yahoo points per game partly constituted of eight tallies of at least 31.6 Yahoo points. The fifth-year wing currently boasts the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage of his career as well (38.2), and he’s facing a Jazz team that’s allowing a Western Conference-high 27.6 offensive efficiency rating to small forwards, along with 48.4% shooting (42.6% from distance) to the position. Barrett comes in with a hot hand as well, scoring at least 23 actual points in three straight while shooting 49.1% in that span.
ALSO CONSIDER: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. IND ($51)
Forward to Avoid
Ausar Thompson, DET vs. PHI ($27): Much like Russell, there’s plenty of upside with Thompson, but when he’s going to flash it is anyone’s guess. The rookie’s significant inefficiency from long distance (14.6% 3-point shooting) has helped cap his production at times, and he just snapped an ugly four-game streak of 13.4 Yahoo points or less his last time on the floor. The 76ers can be a tough defensive matchup overall, making Thompson a bit of a risk at his salary.
Centers
Joel Embiid, PHI at DET ($55): Embiid is one of those set-it-and-forget-it plays Wednesday, with the big man drawing a premium matchup against a Pistons team conceding the second-most Yahoo points per game to centers (59.9), along with an NBA-high 3.9 blocks per game to the position. Detroit also ranks in the bottom 10 of the league with 53.5 points in the paint per game allowed, and Embiid already lit the Pistons up for 57.7 Yahoo points across 36 minutes in the first meeting between the teams on Nov. 10.
Brook Lopez, MIL vs. IND ($26): Lopez has been trending way up lately, scoring 38.1 to 41.1 Yahoo points in his last three contests while complementing his production with at least three blocks in each of those games. The middle contest in that sample came against these same Pacers, with Lopez putting up 39.2 Yahoo points across 37 minutes. Indiana is allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (35.1) and 56.3 Yahoo points per game to the position while also conceding the fifth-most blocks per game (6.0), the latter number particularly important when considering Lopez.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jusuf Nurkic, PHO vs. BKN ($23)
Center to Avoid
Xavier Tillman, MEM at HOU ($18): Tillman has often provided minimal production since his return from an extended absence from a knee injury, scoring 4.7 Yahoo points or less in three of his first five games back. With that kind of risk, he should carry a lower salary for the time being. However, because he also does have 21.4 and 26.4 Yahoo-point tallies in his other two contests in that span, there’s a certain allure of a big return on investment. Nevertheless, on such a big slate with so many other options, I’d steer clear, especially with the Rockets also ranking No. 5 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to centers.
