Dejounte Murray’s assist totals could rise with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson in New Orleans.
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No NBA season is without its share of surprises. The introduction of promising rookie talent and a volatile free agent market shifts the league landscape, and the 2024-25 NBA season will be no exception.
This article will highlight three rising guards poised for breakout seasons and three backcourt players who might fly under the radar.
Before we introduce our selections, it’s important to note the distinction between a ‘riser’ and a ‘sleeper’. A riser is an already-established player who is due for an increase in production and performance. Typically, a change of scenery with a new team is the primary factor when estimating a player’s updated effectiveness. A sleeper could be a promising rookie who will contribute immediately or an undervalued player who is overlooked after failing to meet expectations in previous seasons.
Risers
Detroit’s offseason additions and young core look to be complementary to 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
The former No. 1 overall pick has endured a rough start in Detroit. First, Cunningham’s rookie year was cut short by a shin injury. Then, his sophomore season was thwarted by a struggling supporting cast and an uninspired offense. After two frustrating campaigns, the outlook looks rosier for Cunningham in Motor City. The Pistons made shrewd moves in the offseason and added veteran talent to give their star some support. The addition of Tobias Harris, combined with the promise of Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, should be effective complements to Cunningham’s speed and skill. With a little luck, a spot on the All-Star team isn’t out of the question.
Josh Giddey, Bulls
Giddey experienced career lows last season while sharing the stage with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City. Giddey also saw a sharp decrease in usage, averaging just 25.2 minutes per game after logging around 31 minutes of court time a night over his first two seasons. The talented Aussie enters a more favorable situation in Chicago, where DeMar DeRozan’s departure will place more pressure on Zach LaVine to fill the gap as he returns from injury. The Bulls’ backcourt still awaits the return of Lonzo Ball, and there’s no roadblock preventing Giddey from first-unit minutes. He’s expected to play alongside Coby White as the off-guard, and Giddey’s 11 triple-doubles over three seasons with the Thunder are evidence of his uncapped potential at the position.
Dejounte Murray, Pelicans
Although Murray held his own opposite Trae Young as a fantasy contributor, a sharp decrease in assists during his two-year tenure with Atlanta certainly put a dent in his overall value. Murray now finds himself in New Orleans and will assume point-guard duties, returning to a role that earned him critical acclaim during his tenure in San Antonio. We should see Murray’s assist totals balloon with excellent targets like Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson at his disposal, alongside sharing the backcourt with CJ McCollum. Murray also will have no problem creating his own opportunities. He logged a career-high 22.5 points per game last season, and the change of scenery should help him sustain or exceed that number.
Sleepers
Entering his sophomore season, Brandon Miller’s upside should be useful in the later stages of fantasy drafts.
Brandon Miller, Hornets
If you’re sharing the backcourt with a blue-chip guard like LaMelo Ball, you are bound to fly under the radar. The Hornets had a chance to pick up Scoot Henderson in the 2023 NBA Draft but opted for Miller instead, and it looks like they made the correct choice. Miller ranked third in Rookie of the Year voting behind Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren and provided 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals over 68 regular-season games in his first season. One might expect Miller’s numbers to remain static with Ball presumably at 100% to begin the year, but it’s important to note that Ball’s uncanny passing acumen should work in Miller’s favor. The Alabama product had some trouble getting shots to fall last season, but with another year under his belt, his upside will be useful in the later stages of fantasy drafts.
Reed Sheppard, Rockets
The third pick in the 2024 NBA Draft had an excellent showing in the Summer League, and the Kentucky product could create a seismic shift in Houston’s rotation. Consistent minutes may seem like a bleak proposition for the rookie, with backcourt mainstays like Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Amen Thompson atop the depth chart. If Sheppard’s starting salary of $10.1M is any indication, the Rockets want him to make an impact as soon as possible. Sheppard entered the draft as one of the best 3-point shooters in the field, and although his 6-foor-2 frame might affect his ability to defend, the Rockets need his skills on the perimeter. Houston ranked 23rd in three-point percentage and saw only 33.4% of its points coming from beyond the arc last season. Sheppard could provide a solid boost for the offense as the first player off the bench.
Damian Lillard, Bucks
Although the veteran was more than adequate as the new floor general for the Bucks, his results paled in comparison to the lofty totals attained as Portland’s franchise player. The Bucks fired Adrian Griffin in the middle of the season and dealt with several injuries during the 2023-24 campaign, and it was reported that Lillard was having a hard time adjusting to life in Milwaukee. Time heals all wounds, so it might be a perfect opportunity to find an edge and take Lillard at what will be a much lower ADP. The synergy between Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo needed some seasoning, and it’s reasonable to expect that Lillard will improve his numbers significantly if the two stars can get in sync.
