Over the last month, few teams have been able to stop the Cleveland Guardians, who are one of MLB’s best and hottest teams. The Cincinnati Reds weren’t able to do so last night, but they will attempt to do so tonight with one of the NL’s top pitchers on the bump (7:10 pm ET, ESPN+).
Since losing the first three games of a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox last month, the Guardians are 19-6 and have lost just one series.
In the opener of their two-game set in Cincinnati, two hits and three RBI by Josh Naylor and a solid showing on the mound from Triston McKenzie and the bullpen helped Cleveland claim a 5-3 win at Great American Ball Park last night.
While it was a third straight win for the Guardians, it was a second straight loss for the Reds, who had won seven in a row prior to a loss Sunday in the finale of their four-game series with the Chicago Cubs.
Can they get back on track before they hit the road for NL Central rivalry matchups with the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates? With Nick Lodolo on the mound, the home team is a slight favorite with first pitch hours away.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Odds
Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on Major League Baseball.
Moneyline
- Cleveland Guardians +101
- Cincinnati Reds -111
Over/Under
- Over 8 (-115)
- Under 8 (-105)
Run Line
- Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-205)
- Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+175)
Looking for more baseball picks? Our MLB picks page features moneyline, total (over/under), and run line (spread) picks for every MLB game on the schedule each day.
Pitching Matchup for Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Guardians: RHP Tanner Bibee (13 starts, 4-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
- Cincinnati Reds: LHP Nick Lodolo (9 starts, 6-2, 2.92 ERA, 0.99 WHIP)
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Analysis
While Cincinnati is favored in this matchup, Guardians-Reds expert picks heavily side with Cleveland.
Notable trends are also on Cleveland’s side. The Reds are only 12-10 (.546, 18th in MLB) as a home favorite, and they are only 16-18 (.471, 23rd in MLB) in games following a loss. The Guardians, meanwhile, are 11-6 (.647, 4th in MLB) as a road underdog and 27-15 (.643, 3rd in MLB) in games following a win.
That said, the Reds are my pick for tonight.
Bibee’s road splits (2-0, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .221 OBA in six starts) are better than his home splits (2-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .253 OBA in seven starts). And in his last five starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP.
But since returning from a stint on the 15-day injured list last month, Lodolo is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in three starts. Last time out, he allowed one run, four hits, and two walks and struck out seven in six innings in a win over the Cubs last Friday.
The Guardians’ batting average splits are better on the road (.244), at night (.245), and against lefties (.249) than they are at home (.234), during the day (.231), and against righties (.236). Comparatively, the Reds are worse at home (.213) than on the road (.241) and against righties (.236) than lefties (.222).
Nonetheless, I still like Lodolo and the Reds in this spot. He’s on a good run right now, and I feel confident in it continuing tonight.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Best Bets
Guardians vs Reds Prediction: Reds to win
Guardians vs Reds Best Bets
Reds ML (-111 at BetOnline)
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